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My Notes 18-Aug-2017 18-08-2017
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Please follow My Notes and My Video 18-8-2017.

Redrawing the arc of influence

Indian diplomacy needs to display higher levels of sophistication in the fast changing global scenario. Prime minister Modi is able to bring in dynamism and energy in to it but strategically it need to improve much. Various issues of interest are

  1. China – china is able to enter in to South Asia and expand its presence in west Asia. Most of Indian neighbours today have strong diplomatic and trade ties with china. If Doklam  standoff is considered, all south Asian countries maintained Equi distance from India and China.

In west Asia, china is able to develop a strong relationship with Iran and Israel. Israel is eager to Join belt and road initiative.

In south East Asia, china is able to break the collective solidarity of the ASEAN on South China Sea issue.

Another aspect is growth in Russia – china strategic congruence. It is certain to impact Asia.

  1. USA – Indian Prime Minister visit to USA was a reiteration of old agreements and thrust was on the counter terrorism and defence cooperation. Major irritants related to trade and immigration are not discussed.
  2. Russia – India’s relationship with Russia is historically low. Russia had shown inclination to develop a defence pact with Pakistan. At Heart of Asia summit held in Amritsar, Russia supported Pakistan on terrorism in Afghanistan. Iran- Russia china – Afghanistan relations are strengthening.
  3. Pakistan – Pakistan is suffering from political instability and it is expected to strengthen the deep state.

On positive side,

India’s act east policy has produced better results. Closer relations with Japan and Vietnam are a positive development.

 

The sinking feeling

Economic survey 2 has exposed the downside risks of Indian economy.  They are

  1. A number of Indicators – GDP, IIP, core GVA, credit and investment growth, capacity utilization are all time low.
  2. Demonetisation has devastated the informal sector and farmers income. Loss in demand has lowered the food prices.
  3. GST has parlayed the informal sector as modalities are not clear.
  4. NPA’s of banks are all time high and India suffers from twin balance sheet problem.
  5. Job creation is not as promised and is close to 1.5million.

 

Son vs Bezos

New investments flowing in to e commerce market in India is expected to raise competition. New players entering in to the field like Microsoft, Tenent and eBay can increase customer choice.

 

Should Hamid ansari have spoken his mind?

  1. In any society when the sense of oneness and unity breaks down, people who are numerically less in terms of faith or caste or other identities feel threatened.
  2. Gandhiji explained communal violence by referring to the practice of untouchability in hindu society. He said thatall those who were victims of untouchability were attracted to Islambecause of its ideals of equality andbrotherhood and there would havebeen no communal violence andHindu-Muslim disunity had therebeen no untouchability.

 

News

  1. Rights groups urge India to honor duty to rohingyas : Human rights watch called upon india to abide by the international legal obligations and not force Rohingyas to return.
  2. 1. Trump’s new South Asia strategy for Afghanistan likely today
  3.  
 

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