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My notes 07-09-2015

More wome  workers can boost growth - IMF chief

 

W-20 summit , Ankara , Turkey

 

Women labour participation will increase GDP - agents of change snd social transformation

If the number of female workers were to increase to the same level as the number of men, GDP in the United States would expand by 5 per cent, by 9 per cent in Japan, and by 27 per cent in India, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated.

 

“Women’s empowerment is not just a fundamentally moral cause, it is also an absolute economic no-brainer.”

 

The Food and Agriculture Organisation, has estimated that giving women the same access to farming resources as men could increase output in developing countries by up to 4 per cent.

 

At their summit meeting last November, the G-20 pledged to reduce the gap in women’s labour force participation by 25 per cent by the year 2025, which would have the benefit of creating an estimated 100 million new jobs for the global economy

 

Three key policy areas for women’s economic empowerment, the IMF chief talked about, include those in education, the workplace and the family. So, cash transvers can be made conditional to girl child education as like in Bangladesh and cambodia.

Improving school infrastructure, physical access to the school, better sanitation all can improve the opportunities for girl child education.

 

In some countries, inspite of higher education, they still have low labour participation rate - The reasons include lack of access to finance , legal barriers , burden of child care etc.

 

Solutions suggested by IMF chief include

  1. Financial inclusion - In emerging and developing countries, 70 per cent of female-owned small and medium-sized enterprises are either unserved or under-served by financial institutions.
  2. Development of access - Without access to basic transport or energy sources, women find it very difficult to work outside the home.” In rural South Africa, for example, electrification increased female labour force participation by 9 per cent.
  3.  cutting the cost of childcare by half could increase the number of young mothers in the labour market by 10 per cent.
  4. Paid parental leave helps women to maintain connection with the labour market.

 

Ban on civil society - Gag on green peace

  1. FCRA is misused by the Government for an over arching control on people movements. Any organisation has to run on finances. Even it is critical for NGOS.
  2. Foreign funded NGOS all shall be transparent, respect the law of land. At the same time, government of the day has to see their movements in positive light.
  3. Government shall realise that civil liberties and free speech shall go hand in hand.

 

RSS guiding the Government

RSS guiding the Government

  1. The elected Government of the day is guided by their accountability to democratic institutions and processes. It also shall respect law of the land.
  2. Giving a space to extra constitutional authorities can undermine the democratic institutions. Emergency in the past is a reflection of this. Now, an Institution in the place of Individual is taking the role of an extra constitutional authority in the name of Mentor is a dangerous trend. These institutions are secretive, unaccountable and can me more described as pressure groups to promote their agenda.
  3. The maturity of the democratic system can be evaluated based on to what extent, it can resist these mentors.

 

 

Inner line permit

Inner Line Permit is required for Indian citizens to enter Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Mizoram. Inner Line Permit is issued under theBengal Eastern Frontier Regulation, 1873

 

From <http://www.mdoner.gov.in/content/inner-line-permit>

 

The demand in Manipur is to implement the Inner Line Permit (ILP).

 

 The Inner Line Permit The ILP is a special pass or permit that is required to enter the Northeastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Mizoram.

 

The system was introduced by the British to protect their commercial interests, particularly in oil and tea, and continues now essentially as a mechanism to firewall the tribal peoples and their cultures from onslaughts by outsiders. Before the Anglo-Manipur war of 1891, non-Manipuris needed permission from the cabinet of the independent kingdom of Manipur to enter and exit the territories of the King.

 

 The British introduced the ILP, which remained in force until 1950, when the Commissioner of Assam, in whose jurisdiction Manipur fell, revoked it in the areas that went on to become, in 1972, the state of Manipur.

 

 The Regulation of Visitors, Tenants and Migrant Workers’ Bill made it mandatory for non-Manipuris to register themselves with the government for reasons of “their safety and security and for the maintenance of public order” upon entering the state.

 

The Bill proposed to set up visitor registration centres in the state. Owners of “transit units” — hotels, motels, inns, lodges, guesthouses, private stay lodges and individual accommodations let out to visitors — were to register with a Director for Registration of Visitors and Tenants, and submit details of visitors along with identity documents to the government. Contractors hiring labour from outside Manipur were to follow similar rules, and the government was to issue permits to migrant workers. The Bill proposed to punish non-compliance with fines, the largest of which was Rs 50,000.

 

Demographic change

 

 Manipur’s population grew at 12.80% during 1941-51, but jumped to 35.04% and 37.56% during 1951-61 and 1961-71 respectively after the permit system was abolished. According to Sapamcha, “there is a serious danger of the indigenous Manipuri population being wiped out along with their culture, history and languages”. The protesters claim that foreigners from Bangladesh, Nepal and Burma have been entering the state freely, settling in both hill and valley areas, and buying property in the Imphal valley. 

 

Manipur valley, which is about 9 per cent of the geographical area and 61.54 per cent of the enumerated population (Census 2001)live there. It comprises the majority community Meitei, tribals and others living together.

 

The 2001 Census indicated the size of the migrant community was nearly as much as that of the dominant ethnic Meiteis.

 

Manipuris are losing land to “extractive” non-Manipuri industries. The leasing out of “onesixth of the total area” of Manipur for oil exploration and drilling to international oil majors, unthinkable in the other States.

 

The agitators had recommended that the Manipur Land Revenue and Reforms Act, 1960, should be amended to restrict the transfer or sale of land to non-residents — on the lines of the Himachal Pradesh Tenancy and Land Reforms Act, 1972. But this recommendation was not incorporated in the Bill.

 

On July 15, the House withdrew the earlier Regulation of Visitors, Tenants and Migrant Workers Bill as demanded by the protesters, and Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh promised to introduce the ILP Bill within three months.

Conclusion -  The State should ensure that alien-investor-driven development does not disrobe its people. After all, they are supposed to benefit from the growth generated out of its own domestic resources.

 

In Manipur, only Meiteis are demanding for Inner line permit , but not the other tribes such as Kukis and Nagas.

 

Kuki organisations have opposed the ILP movement from spreading in Churachandpur and Chandel districts, which led to a violent clash on August 18, at the border town of Moreh. They have charged the Bills as being evidence of Meitei expansionism in the hills to expel a large section of Kukis.

 

Violence in Manipur

Assembly of Manipur passed three important laws.

  1. The Protection of Manipur Peoples Bill
  2. The Manipur Land Revenue & Land Reforms and
  3. the Manipur Shop & Establishment Bills

 

The Land Reforms Bill is perceived by many among the tribal Kuki and Naga communities as attempts by the Meitei community to gain access to scheduled hill districts.

 

Under Section 158 of the Manipur Land Revenue & Land Reform Act 1960, land belonging to a Scheduled Tribe in the valley areas cannot be sold to a non-Scheduled Tribe person without the prior consent of the Deputy Commissioner concerned. Further Clause 2(b) of the Protection of Manipur People Bill, which defines “Manipur People” as “Persons of Manipur whose names are in the National Register of Citizens, 1951, Census Report 1951 and Village Directory of 1951 and their descendants who have contributed collective social, cultural and economic life of Manipur” has justified apprehensions among the tribal groups.

If the bill is enacted into law, a person needs to have been enumerated in all three registers — the National Register of Citizens, 1951, the Census Report 1951 and the Village Directory of 1951 — to be considered as belonging to the State. Conversely, being registered in just one or two registers/directories means he or she has not met the criteria. Hence if the bill becomes a law and is implemented strictly, many people in the hill areas face the prospect of being excluded

Since Manipur attained Statehood status only in 1972, there is a possibility that many of the local people may be listed as outsiders because of their inability to provide the required documents.

Always crashing in the same car

 

  1. In a system there are four factors that are very important and their relative strenrhts determine sthe functioning of these systems.
  2. They are workers( wages) , capitalists(profits), rentiers(interest rates), state (taxes)

Statge 1 - post depression phase - In the aftermath of the Great Depression, the state, through legislation, and the workers — to some extent — through trade union movements, had gained strength vis-à-vis the other two classes, resulting in a rise in share of taxes and wages in the First World. It lasted till the early 1970s when staggeringly high in- flation rates further cut into the share of finance.

 

Stage 2 - collapse of the state model and demands for reduced state regulation - China’s Rightward shift reinforced this tendency. Both the state and working class were on the retreat, with the share of taxes and wages falling across the First World (French economist Thomas Piketty has written extensively on the latter).

But here is the irony: a fall in state-led investment and a fall in consumption by workers also meant a fall in size of the pie itself.

 

Finance became the major source of growth. -  The only way the pie could still keep expanding was if finance itself stimulated activity. After very low growth till the mid-1990s, the U.S. saw high growth rates (till the Great Recession hit it), first as a result of the Dotcom bubble and later as a result of the real estate bubble, both propped up by finance. It also spread in to emerging markets. Here, Import substitution policies are relpaced with globalisation needs.

 

Trade and finance - They are the major sources the countries got interconnected.

 

  1. China chose export led growth model - It means , it can only grow on the demand from markets abroad. . Second, it can only happen at the cost of suppressing domestic demand resulting from falling wages.
  2. Now the chinese fall in growth is related to fall in global demand.  Than , finance flew in to real estate sector and overheating of the economy, over cappacities are the result.

 

Can India gain from this situation?

  1. First, China is losing out on exports not because its goods have become relatively more expensive giving Indian producers an opportunity to undercut but because the export market itself has shrunk. In other words, who will they sell to?
  2. Second, in such bearish export markets, those who have been in the game for long, like the Chinese producers, have far deeper pockets when it comes to cutting prices. It will be a race to the bottom with the working class of these countries forced to struggle against each other for their capitalists to grab an ever-elusive share of the pie in the international goods market.
  3. Third, any competitive devaluation of the currency will result in a trade war with no victors.
  4.  Fourth, India is more integrated with international finance owing to its lax tax laws and capital account regulations, so, to keep finance happy, India is forced to keep the returns on finance (interest rates) high, which again acts to the detriment of investment in the real economy

 

Hiroshima - from city of remembrance to city of hope

  1. There are many versions on the atomic attack of USA on Japan - They range from USA interest to test this nuclear device, to stop war etc.
  2. However. The incident raised the curtains for cold war and Nuclear arms race between USA and USSR.
  3. NPT treaty, CTBT failed to provide a solution. If critically analyzed NPT is more a failure treaty.
  4. The NPT framework cannot accommodate India’s position or tackle China’s assistance to Pakistan; its review conferences have repeatedly failed in grappling with Israel’s programme; the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea walked out of the treaty; and most recently, Iran ensured that it will retain a non weaponised capability in terms of its enrichment programme. Clearly, the NPT has reached the limits of its success and even exhausted its normative potential.
  5. Today the circumstances have changed from the days of cold war. The centre of gravity has shifted from the Euro-Atlantic to the Asia-Pacific region and this is a more crowded geopolitical space without any overarching binary equation. Non state actors became a major threat to the world.
  6. The activities of the leadership in Hiroshima can provide for a new hope - The Governor of the Prefecture, Hidehiko Yuzaki, launched a Hiroshima for Global Peace Plan in 2011, as a symbolic point of origin for pursuit of peace, abolition of nuclear weapons, post-conflict reconstruction and hope in the spirit of man. Mayor Kazumi Matsui chairs an initiative called Mayors for Peace which brings together over 6,700 cities worldwide that are committed to seeking global nuclear disarmament by 2020.

Growth in carbon levels - . The first half of this increase took place over two centuries, from the start of the Industrial Revolution to around 1973, but the second half of the increase occurred much more rapidly, in less than four decades.

 

Limited carbon budget - Available carbon space - The upper limit of tem raise is fixed at 2degrees c. already we reached a level of .8 degrees. The major challenge is how the remaining space has to be distributed.

 

  1. We shall differentiate between survival and luxury emissions.
  2. Disproportionate accumulation of developed countries need to be penalized
  3. Delayed effects - future generations will be deprived of our actions
  4. Asymmetrical impacts - poor will be worse effected than the rich.

 

 

Floating test range

  1. India is building a unique floating testing range — a huge ship — to overcome the limitations imposed by the land mass for carrying out missile tests of varying ranges for the two-tier ballistic missile defence (BMD) system to protect important cities.
  2. Limitations are - people need to be evacuated regularly to conduct a test. 2) missile range has to be confined to less than 300 km
  3. BMD - It engages the incoming missiles in exo and endo atmosphere.
  4. The first phase involves annihilation of missiles less than 2000km and the next stage greater than 2000 km.

 

 

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