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October 22, 2015 - Focus on USA - Pakistan nuclear deal 22-10-2015

22 October 2015

 

Consumption and climate change

  • In recent climate change related talks and while furbishing the intended nationally determined contributions , the major factors that did not get attention include
  1. Consumption - The highly energy consuming lifestyles that involves consumption of goods that are produced abroad are not taken in to consumption. . For instance, in a globalized world though a good is produced in country, it is consumed at the other place. In this context, the carbon emissions are counted in the place where the good is produced rather than where it is consumed. For ex, a car is produced in china and exported to USA, the entire carbon emissions in the production of the car are counted in china rather than USA. If we take this factor in to consideration, the carbon emissions of west will be many times higher.
  2. India is also dangerously moving towards this consumptive mindset. So, going back to the old sustainable lifestyles is a solution for climate change.
  3. The efficient technologies are suggested as a solution. But, they will have a rebound effect. It mean that the cost of use for the product will come down and it leads to greater use.
  4. So, the effective solution is - we shall decouple wellbeing from economic growth and consumption.

 

 Measures for Judicial reform

 

Mainstreaming a nuclear Pakistan

 

Understand the following terms first

 

  1. Non weaponized nuclear deterrence

Recessed Deterrence allows for the fabrication of warheads and other components of nuclear weapons. Non-Weaponized Deterrence, as the name implies, suggests that the two parties could retain fissile materials and nuclear weapon components but would stop short of manufacturing warheads. With Recessed Deterrence, nuclear weapons have no tactical role and are only to be used to deter a nuclear attack. However, Non-Weaponized Deterrence, along with confidence building measures, would help in deterring the nuclear genie without the costs and instabilities of deployed nuclear arsenals. To achieve a stable Non-Weaponized Deterrence regime, both India and Pakistan would have to pledge that they will neither assemble nor deploy nuclear weapons or nuclear capable ballistic missiles. Some steps that could lead to Non-Weaponised Deterrence may be the following:

   

  • Non-deployment of nuclear capable missiles
  • Cessation of fissile material production
  • Non-configuration and exercise of force for nuclear role
  • Furtherance of nuclear confidence building measures

 

  1. Full spectrum deterrence of Pakistan –
  • In recent years, Islamabad has focused on ramping up its plutonium production capabilities and developing lower-yield tactical weapons in order to deter India s superior conventional forces.
  • Pakistan s pursuit of full-spectrum deterrence abilities to mean it will continue to focus on producing "smaller nuclear weapons with larger yields."

 

  1. Tactical nuclear weapon vs strategic nuclear weapon – Tactical nuclear weapon is used in battle field and strategic nuclear weapon is used to destruct the cities and to cause mutually assured destruction.
  2. Cold start doctrine( Indian blitzkrieg) – It involves rapidly mobilizing the troops to the border in case of war and gain a strategic victory before the world intervenes. It is aimed at paralyzing Pakistani response. Pakistan is trying to back up with tactical nuclear weapons.

 

USA – Pakistan Nuclear doctrine – should INDIA oppose it?

What are the strategic advantages to India?

  • It may promote the international nonproliferation regime and pave way fro FMCT.
  • It is in the best interests of India to ensure that Pakistan’s nuclear program is under international safeguards. It will bring clandestine china-Pakistan nuclear relations in to international scrutiny.  A nuclear deal ensures a responsible behaviour from Pakistan.
  • The number of conditionality’s that will be imposed on Pakistan will may make her to compromise her on full spectrum deterrence and force her to commit her to recessed deterrence. It will also limit their tactical nuclear weapon production.
  • Pakistan may be forced to sign CTBT delinking it from India signing the same.

On the other side, the antagonists argue that it may hyphenate the India and Pakistan again once the deal passes through. There is a remotest possibility, if we take Pakistan’s poor proliferation record into consideration.

In this context, India’s best strategy is to offer conditional support to Pakistan’s inclusion in to global nuclear order. The conditions it can impose are – no first use policy from Pakistan and non-stalling of FMCT negotiations.

Nuclear Tango in Afghan shadow

  • Afghanistan’s continuing instability and recent occupation of Kunduz by Taliban sent new challenges to USA. It became inevitable for USA to take Pakistan along in its fight against terror. To have a safe and honorable exit from Afghanistan, it believes Pakistan cooperation is necessary.
  • In this context, civil nuclear deal is good bait to Pakistan to gain its support. In this context, Reagan Government also did a similar mistake of ignoring clandestine nuclear cooperation of china and Pakistan. Long term consequences of this are not in the best interests of USA or nuclear nonproliferation as a whole. So, Obama administration shall consider this.
  • If we consider the history, solarz amendment in congress recommended to block assistance to Pakistan and Reagan moved on ignoring this. Than, pressler amendment made the USA president to certify to congress that Pakistan is not producing nuclear weapons before giving any financial or military aid.

 

Measures for a judicial reform

  1. Citizens are expecting an independent and effective Judiciary that can effectively deal with litigation.
  2. In this context, speedy disposal of cases need filling the vacancies in High courts and Supreme Court, upgrading the court infrastructure, appointing the adhoc judges for disposal of pending cases etc.
  3. On the institutional side, Supreme court itself held that collegium system need a reform and in this context a collegium at high courts, regional permanent commissions shall recommend and screen the applicants who are aspiring to be judges and collegium at supreme court will finally make recommendations for their appointment. Similarly for the appointment of judges to Supreme Court, a separate collegium and permanent commission need to be created.
  4. Permanent commissions also shall be given power to scrutinise the complaints of dishonesty and integrity of judges.

 

 

 

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