Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: Global issues, Issue: Crisis in the Middle east and its implications.
Context:
On June 13, Israel launched a major attack on Iran, destroying much of its air defences which has long-term strategic consequences regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Key Highlights:
Israeli Strategy:
- Military deterrence: Netanyahu focused entirely on military deterrence without any real long-term political solution.
- Undermining peace process: He undermined peace processes and did not address the Palestinian issue, a key component in regional stability.
- Sabotaging JCPOA: Even during the Obama administration’s JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), Netanyahu sought to sabotage the deal, failing to offer a viable alternative.
US Approach under Trump:
- Withdrew from JCPOA: Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, which had effectively limited Iran’s nuclear progress.
- Unclear stance: Trump’s decisions were driven more by personal motives and domestic politics than by long-term strategic thinking. His stance lacked clear planning for post-deal fallout, essentially encouraging Iran to accelerate its nuclear deterrence capabilities.
Iran’s calculations post-attacks:
- Nuclear deterrence: Iran’s leadership now views nuclear weapons as the only credible deterrent.
- Safeguarding regime: The attack and absence of a viable deal increase the likelihood of Iran pursuing a bomb to ensure regime survival.
- Turbulent West-Asia: By abandoning long-term diplomacy and only focusing on coercion, the West may have increased the certainty of Iran’s nuclearization in the future.
- Strategic Missteps: The Israeli and American actions weakened global leverage over Iran by undermining JCPOA. Post-JCPOA, Iran has become more determined, accelerating covert enrichment and solidifying its justification for nuclear armament.
Regional Implications:
- West Asia fallout: Destabilization of the region continues besides the rise of proxy groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran-backed militias.
- Conflict escalation: Short-term tactical victories (e.g., strikes on air defences) may lead to strategic blunders. Deterrence without diplomacy only escalates threats.
- Difficult balancing: especially for countries like India. Contrary to some claims, India never ceased cooperation with Iran under US pressure. India continued balancing ties with both the West and Iran.
Conclusion:
A comprehensive, sustained, and realistic diplomatic strategy is essential to prevent a nuclear Iran. The best solution lies in restoring and improving multilateral nuclear agreements like the JCPOA.
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