Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: Global issues, Issue: Implications of the Israel-Iran ceasefire.
Context:
The cessation of hostilities between Israel and Iran, beginning with Hamas’s Operation Toofan al-Aqsa (October 7, 2023), marks a temporary pause, not an end, in the ongoing regional conflict.
Key Highlights:
Israel’s Military Campaign:
- Backed by U.S., Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) launched heavy strikes in Gaza and Lebanon.
- It claimed destruction of Hamas infrastructure and Hezbollah’s capabilities.
- Estimated 100,000 missiles neutralized, but true strategic results remain mixed.
- High-intensity retaliation: 12-day strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites targeted Iranian missile storage, scientists, and personnel.
Iran’s Response:
- Mullah regime’s resilience: Iran is able to withstand economic sanctions and isolation. Public dissent over governance and regime change are not strong enough.
- Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD): Tehran’s continued WMD program remains a threat as the regime resists international supervision, creating global anxiety.
- Geopolitical risk: A breakdown in control over Iran could mirror Iraq’s post-2003 instability. Tehran might become a counterbalancing force to U.S.-backed Pax Americana in the region.
- Iranian-backed proxies: Iran is continuing influence through Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis. It can further destabilize U.S. and Israeli interests in West Asia.
- Flow of resources: Though U.S. and allies seek to cut off Iranian networks using multilateral tools, Iranian energy, arms, merchandise still reaches allies.
Dilemma for the West:
- Pressure on Khamenei: At 86 years old, Iran’s Supreme Leader may exit soon with the likely successor being Mojtaba Khamenei who is a hardliner.
- Democracy vs Instability: Pushing for a regime change or democratic transition risks instability while installing a friendly regime is nearly impossible given internal corruption, inflation, and governance failure.
The Gaza Question: No Resolution in Sight:
- Two-state solution elusive: Israeli hardline politics and expansionist settlements undermine peace prospects. The desperation in Gaza continues due to isolation and blockades.
- Fragmented leadership: Palestinian leadership is fragmented and aged (e.g., President Abbas) while Trump’s proposal to “depopulate Gaza” reflects lack of viable peace plans.
- Thus, Gaza remains critical, but no enduring resolution is visible.
Broader Implications:
- Fragile West Asia: West Asia remains fragile as shift from war to peace is not assured. Ethnic and sectarian divisions (Kurds, Azeris, Sunni minorities) continue to pose fragmentation risks.
- India’s stakes: Energy security, diaspora safety, trade, and regional influence depend on West Asia’s stability. Thus, strategic neutrality and calibrated diplomacy are essential.
Conclusion:
The ceasefire is only a pause, not a solution. Without diplomatic foresight, regional cooperation, and leadership transition management, new rounds of conflict are inevitable. Managing the post-ceasefire blowback is the real challenge ahead for the world.
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