Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: India and its neighbourhood, Issue: Implications of The Hague Tribunal’s ruling on Indus Water Treaty (IWT).
Context:
The Hague’s Court of Arbitration ruled on June 27, 2025, reaffirming jurisdiction on the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) dispute, despite Pakistan’s absence from the proceedings.
Key Highlights:
Indus Water Treaty (IWT)) backdrop:
- Brokered by the World Bank in 1960 between India and Pakistan.
- Allocated eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India, and western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan.
- Despite wars and conflicts, the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) has survived for over 60 years though its resilience is now tested under terrorism and geopolitical shifts.
- India had previously placed the Treaty “in abeyance” due to terror attacks by Pakistan-based groups.
Current issue:
- The current dispute is not only about water sharing, but also about sovereignty, security, and the credibility of peace agreements under asymmetric warfare.
- India called the court ruling legally invalid and irrelevant until Pakistan stops supporting cross-border terrorism.
Hague Tribunal’s Decision:
- It ruled that India’s suspension of participation was unjustified and found that Pakistan’s objections over interpretation should be resolved legally.
- Tribunal’s award reflects legal logic, but lacks geopolitical realism.
- Further legal validity does not equate to moral or political legitimacy, especially when terror disrupts trust.
India’s Position:
- Non-Violation: India did not violate Pakistan’s water share or Treaty clauses.
- Treaty in abeyance: The decision to hold the Treaty in abeyance was a consequence, not revenge triggered by the Pahalgam terror attack (April 2023).
- India’s message: Treaties depend on trust, which fails when terror persists.
- Firmness and foresight: India must show firmness with foresight and prepare to utilize its full share of eastern rivers while honouring the Treaty’s terms.
Pakistan’s Role:
- Misuse: Uses Treaty politically while harbouring terror groups.
- Raising legal challenge: It rejects dialogue but continues international legal challenges. This dual stance undermines the spirit of cooperative diplomacy.
Geopolitical Implications:
- Importance of water: Water is not just a commodity but a strategic asset.
- Wake-up call: Abeyance decision is a wake-up call, not a breakdown of legal order.
- Ensure reciprocity: India must maintain transparency and avoid weaponizing water for retaliation. However, it must insist on reciprocal accountability from Pakistan.
Way Forward:
- Continue diplomatic pressure: India should not abandon the Treaty unilaterally but maintain diplomatic pressure.
- Ensure conditionality: Re-engagement is conditional on cessation of terror. India must also build international understanding by clarifying that peace treaties cannot coexist with state-sponsored terrorism.
- Push for reform: India may pursue reformation within the Treaty for long-term resilience.
Conclusion:
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT)’s future depends not on legal rulings alone, but on mutual political will and strategic realism.Legal frameworks cannot resolve trust deficits rooted in terror. India’s water diplomacy must align with national security and regional stability objectives.
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/drawing-a-line-in-water
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