India-China Rapprochement A season for wishful thinking?

Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: India and its neighbourhood, Issue: India-China relations.

Context:

In the recent SCO Summit in Tianjin, PM Modi held hands with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. It signals India’s willingness to engage with authoritarian powers despite years of tensions.

Key Highlights:

Background: Shifting Dynamics:

• 2019–20 Galwan Clash: Soldiers fought at Himalayan border leading to sharp deterioration in ties.
• India’s Response:
  • Banned Chinese apps such as TikTok.
  • Restricted Chinese investments.
  • Promoted Indo-Pacific strategy with U.S. and Quad.
• Present: Attempt to re-engage with Beijing at Eurasian platforms (SCO, BRICS).

Reasons for India’s Re-engagement:

Obstacles to Genuine Rapprochement:

• Border Disputes: PLA continues incursions, infrastructure buildup along LAC.
• Trust Deficit: Past engagements such as Wuhan 2018, Mamallapuram 2019 offered temporary warmth but collapsed post-crises.
• Divergent Strategic Goals:
  • India seeks to contain China’s dominance.
  • China seeks to limit India’s rise while countering U.S. alliances.
• Russia Factor: India’s outreach to Russia overlaps with China’s close alignment with Moscow, complicating trilateral dynamics.

Implications for India:

• Diplomatic Balance: India must balance ties with U.S.-led Indo-Pacific partners while engaging with Eurasian powers.
• Economic Trade-offs: Dependence on Chinese supply chains persists despite Atmanirbhar push.
• Strategic Uncertainty: Past history shows China’s assurances often lack credibility.

Way Forward:

• Pragmatic Engagement: Maintain dialogue but avoid over-dependence on Chinese goodwill.
• Strengthen Border Preparedness: Continued military modernisation and infrastructure at LAC.
• Diversify Supply Chains: Reduce reliance on Chinese intermediate goods by boosting domestic and alternate sources (Japan, ASEAN).
• Leverage Multilateral Platforms: Use SCO, BRICS for issue-based cooperation without compromising Indo-Pacific commitments.
• Strategic Clarity: Recognise limits of rapprochement; align engagements with long-term national interest.

Conclusion:

India–China rapprochement remains a fragile and uncertain prospect, shaped more by wishful diplomacy than real trust. While economic compulsions and multipolar aspirations drive New Delhi’s outreach, history shows that China has often failed to reciprocate meaningfully. India must engage cautiously, balancing Eurasian participation with Indo-Pacific commitments, and prepare for both cooperation and confrontation.

https://www.livemint.com/opinion/online-views/india-foreign-policy-china-relations-russia-indo-pacific-strategy-eurasia-trade-tariffs-vladimir-putin-xi-jinping-modi-11756909800372.html

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