Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in India

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The Sample Registration Survey (SRS) 2023 report revealed India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) fell to 1.9, below the replacement level (2.1), for the first time in two years, alongside a decline in Crude Birth Rate and rising elderly population.

Description:

  • TFR: Average number of children a woman is expected to give birth to during her reproductive years (15–49 years).
  • Replacement level fertility: TFR of 2.1 (ensures a stable population without migration).

Recent Trends:

  • India’s TFR:
    • 2021 & 2022 → Constant at 2.0 (SRS Report).
    • 2023 → Declined to 1.9, first time below replacement level.
  • Crude Birth Rate (CBR): Fell from 19.1 (2022) → 18.4 (2023) (per 1,000 population).

State-level Trends:

  • Highest TFR (2023): Bihar (2.8), followed by UP (2.6), MP (2.4), Rajasthan (2.3), Chhattisgarh (2.2).
  • Lowest TFR (2023): Delhi (1.2), West Bengal (1.3), Tamil Nadu (1.3), Maharashtra (1.4).
  • 2021 Data:
    • Bihar (3.0) highest.
    • Delhi & West Bengal (1.4) lowest.
    • Southern states (TN, AP, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab) all ~1.5.

 Demographic Shifts:

  • Declining Child Population: Share of 0–14 years fell from 41.2% (1971) → 24.8% (2021).
  • Rising Working-age Population (15–59 years): 53.4% (1971) → 66.2% (2021).
  • Elderly (60+):
    • 2021: 9%.
    • 2023: 9.7% (↑0.7% in 1 year).
    • Kerala: Highest elderly (15%).
    • Lowest elderly % (2023): Assam (7.6%), Delhi (7.7%), Jharkhand (7.6%).

Factors Behind Decline in TFR:

  1. Rising female literacy and age at marriage (mean age at marriage ↑ from 19.3 years in 1990 → 22.5 years in 2021).
  2. Increased urbanization & workforce participation.
  3. Greater access to contraceptives & reproductive health awareness.
  4. Declining preference for larger families due to economic costs and changing aspirations.

 Policy Significance:

  • India has entered the below-replacement fertility phase, signaling a natural slowing of population growth.
  • Opportunities:
    • Harness demographic dividend (working-age majority).
  • Challenges:
    • Rising elderly dependency ratio.
    • Need for healthcare, pensions, social security reforms.
    • Workforce creation to prevent the unemployment crisis.

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