India faces two openly hostile neighbours simultaneously—Pakistan and an increasingly unfriendly interim regime in Bangladesh. The NIA uncovered over 18 pan-India urban terror modules between 2022–2024. Regionally, India finds itself absent from key diplomatic tables in West Asia, Europe and Indo-Pacific crises, reducing the space for strategic influence.
This dual external-internal pressure marks one of the most complex security moments in decades.
EXTERNAL SECURITY CHALLENGES:
Adverse Neighbourhood Dynamics:
1. Pakistan’s renewed military escalation risks:
- Ceasefire violations along the LoC rose again in 2024–25 after a temporary lull post-2021 agreement.
- Multiple NIA dossiers confirm revival of LeT–JeM infiltration networks.
2. Emerging hostility from Bangladesh:
- Interim government signalling tilt towards Pakistan & China.
- Intelligence reports warn of illegal migration and trafficking spikes on the eastern frontier.
3. China’s Expanding Strategic Footprint:
- PLA building dual-use villages, airstrips, and missile sites across the Tibetan plateau.
- Encirclement via China–Pakistan–Bangladesh–Maldives axis. For e.g., Maldives signed new defence cooperation agreements with Beijing in 2024–25.
4. India’s limited visibility in major global crises: Minimal involvement in Israel–Gaza mediation, Ukraine diplomacy, or Indo-Pacific crisis management shows India’s reduced bargaining power in global governance forums.
6. Instability in broader South Asia: Afghanistan under Taliban, Myanmar’s civil war, Nepal’s political flux points out diminishing regional influence of India.
INTERNAL SECURITY CHALLENGES:
1. Spread of “Urban Terror” Beyond Traditional Hotspots: Attacks/modules uncovered from Mumbai to Delhi to Haryana to Bengaluru, indicating nationwide penetration.
2. White collar radicalisation: Many arrested recruits are engineers, doctors, IT professionals, reflecting deep digital radicalisation. Use of encrypted apps, and cryptocurrency wallets is increasing.
3. Foreign ideological influence: Ideological indoctrination is increasingly becoming rampant. For example, The Haryana “urban jihadi” module linked ideologically to global outfits inspired by West Asian networks.
4. Intelligence gaps:
- State police lack specialised HUMINT & cyber-forensics capacity.
- Fragmented coordination between NIA–IB–State police slow detection capabilities.
Strategic Roadmap to address these threats:
1. Reinvigorate Neighbourhood Diplomacy:
- Immediate outreach to Bangladesh coupled with economic packages, connectivity projects, and intelligence cooperation.
- Revive SAARC/IORA engagement and counter Chinese influence through SAGAR 2.0.
- Build a National Counter-Terror Grid for Urban Spaces:
- Integrated NIA–IB–State Police grid with real-time data fusion.
- Expand metropolitan CT Units with AI-enabled surveillance & financial tracking.
- Strengthen Border & Maritime Security:
- Strengthen AI-based fencing along LoC/IB and UAV patrols.
- Coastal radar chain extension alongside joint patrols with IOR partners.
4. Restore India’s Global Diplomatic Visibility: Lead coalitions on maritime safety, counterterrorism, and humanitarian crises besides active participation in West Asian peace processes and Indo-Pacific security dialogues.
5. Counter Radicalisation efforts: Multi-agency deradicalisation programs and partnerships with community leaders, educators, and tech platforms.
CONCLUSION:
Addressing this requires a coherent national security doctrine, integrating diplomacy, intelligence, military preparedness, and social resilience. Only through a holistic, anticipatory security posture can India prevent strategic isolation, neutralise emerging urban terror threats, and safeguard its national interests in an increasingly volatile neighbourhood.
‘+1’ VALUE ADDITION:
- India faces simultaneous adversarial posturing from both Pakistan and Bangladesh. For e.g., Pak Navy ship’s 2025 visit to Bangladesh.
- PLA has constructed over 600 military and dual-use structures along the LAC since 2020 (US DoD China Report, 2023).
- NIA reported a 231% rise in urban radicalisation modules busted between 2015–2024. Haryana “medical-student terror module” case.
- India faced 1.3 million cybersecurity incidents in 2022 (CERT-In), with a 70% surge in ransomware targeting critical infrastructure.
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