Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: India and Its Neighborhood, Issue: Myanmar Elections Amid Civil Conflict.
Context:
Myanmar’s military regime (Tatmadaw) is proceeding with phased elections despite ongoing civil war, large-scale displacement, and the absence of major opposition parties.
Key Takeaways:
Background:
- In February 2021, Myanmar’s military overthrew the elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government led by Aung San Suu Kyi.
- The junta promised elections to restore “discipline-flourishing democracy,” but delayed them repeatedly citing instability.
- Elections are now being held in phases, only in areas under military control.
Current Situation (with Data):
- Myanmar is witnessing nationwide armed resistance, involving:
- People’s Defence Forces (PDFs)
- Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs)
- As per UN estimates: 2.6 million+ people displaced internally
- Elections not held in nearly half of parliamentary constituencies
- Voter participation is expected to be extremely low due to fear, displacement, and disenfranchisement.
Major Absent Parties and Reasons:
- Key opposition and regional parties are sidelined by the Union Election Commission (UEC), which is Tatmadaw-aligned, enforcing stringent registration under the new Political Parties Registration Law.
| Party | Status | Reason for Absence |
| National League for Democracy (NLD) | Dissolved by UEC | Leadership (e.g., Aung San Suu Kyi) detained since 2021; refused to register under new rules. Largest party historically. |
| Arakan National Party (ANP) | Re-registration rejected | Strong in Rakhine State, where Tatmadaw control is minimal; UEC bias against regional ethnic parties. |
| Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) | Deregistered | Prominent in Shan State; opposes military rule amid ethnic conflicts. |
| Others (e.g., some ethnic parties) | Barred or dissolved | UEC dissolved 16 national and 31 provincial parties favoring democracy or autonomy. |
This leaves military-backed parties like the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) unopposed in over two dozen seats, ensuring their dominance.
How the Electoral System Favors Military Dominance:
The system is rigged via reserved seats, mixed voting methods, and resource imbalances.
- 25% Reserved Seats: Military nominates 25% of legislators in both houses, giving veto power over constitutional changes (requiring >75% approval).
Voting Methods:
| House/Level | System | Impact |
| Pyithu Hluttaw (Lower) | First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) | Favors USDP in uncontested or low-turnout areas. |
| Amyotha Hluttaw (Upper) & State Legislatures | Proportional Representation (PR) + FPTP | Fragments opposition votes, preventing any party from gaining a majority. |
International Response:
Responses split along geopolitical lines, with most Western actors criticizing the sham process.
- Critical Voices:
- UN High Commissioner for Human Rights: Warns of increased polarization.
- Japan: Condemns holding polls without releasing prisoners.
- Australia & EU: Not free, fair, or inclusive.
- Supportive/Neutral:
- China & Russia: Sent observers; strong Tatmadaw ties (arms, investments).
- ASEAN: Relies on civilian proxies at meetings, avoiding direct military engagement.
- US Ambiguity: Calls for democracy but lifted some sanctions recently (seen as routine); fears Trump prioritizes rare earth minerals over pressure.
- Overall: Limited boycotts; Tatmadaw hopes a “civilian” government post-poll reduces isolation.
These elections, amid war and exclusion, entrench military rule rather than reflect popular will, hindering peace, federalism, or prosperity.
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