India–Myanmar relations are pivotal to India’s Act East, Northeast security, and Indo-Pacific strategy, but have become harder to manage after Myanmar’s post-2021 political breakdown, intensifying border volatility and great-power competition.
Significance of India–Myanmar matters ties:
- Connectivity geopolitics: Myanmar is the only land-bridge connecting India to ASEAN. Projects like Kaladan and the India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway are essential to reduce India’s geographic “chicken-neck” constraints and integrate the Northeast with regional markets.
- Border security: Instability creates operational space for insurgent groups, arms trafficking and narcotics flows through Golden Triangle, directly affecting Manipur–Mizoram–Nagaland.
- Economic linkage: Despite turmoil, ties remain economically relevant as India–Myanmar trade rose to USD 2.15 billion in FY 2024–25.
- Indo-Pacific security: Myanmar’s coastline is crucial for maritime domain awareness and India’s broader Indian Ocean posture, especially when extra-regional powers expand footprints.
- China factor: Myanmar is central for India to preventing strategic encirclement and keeping ASEAN connectivity viable.
Impact of Internal Instability and Regional Geopolitics:
- Security-First Shift: The post-2021 civil conflict has forced India to prioritise border security and counter-insurgency over economic integration.
- Refugee Influx: Violence in Chin and Sagaing regions has led to refugee inflows into Mizoram and Manipur, straining local governance and ethnic relations.
- Operational Delays: Projects like the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway are disrupted by instability.
- China’s Advantage: Myanmar’s instability allows China to deepen influence via selective engagement with the junta and ethnic groups under the China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC).
- Diplomatic Balancing: India faces a dilemma between supporting democratic norms and engaging the military regime to safeguard security and counter China.
Way forward:
· Calibrated Political Engagement: Maintain working engagement with the military junta while quietly opening channels with NUG and EAOs through Track II diplomacy.
· Border Security: Regulate the Free Movement Regime using biometric border passes and selective fencing.
· Fast-Tracking Connectivity Projects: Expedite projects like Kaladan Multimodal Project and IMT Trilateral Highway through joint task forces and conflict-sensitive execution.
· Humanitarian Diplomacy: Adopt a humane, security-screened approach toward Chin and other refugees, especially in Mizoram and Manipur.
· Countering China: Leverage ASEAN and BIMSTEC to multilateralise Myanmar’s stabilisation and dilute China’s unilateral influence.
Conclusion:
A smart approach demands pragmatic engagement and humanitarian credibility and secure connectivity delivery, so that India’s strategic interests are protected without abandoning its commitment to democratic stability and regional peace.
+1 Value Addition:
- Since the 2021 coup, 50,000+ refugees (mainly Chin) have entered Mizoram and Manipur.
- The Kaladan Multimodal Project’s Road component has seen only 10–15% progress due to conflict in Rakhine and Chin.
- Despite unrest, China has advanced CMEC projects, including the Kyaukpyu deep-sea port.
- The Golden Triangle produces over 80% of Southeast Asia’s synthetic drugs.
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