Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: Global Issue, Issue: Shifting Landscape of Nuclear Deterrence.
Context:
Recent U.S.–Europe tensions under Donald Trump have eroded Europe’s trust in the U.S. as NATO’s security guarantor. At the same time, the impending expiry of the New START treaty signals a weakening of global arms control.
Key Highlights:
The Immediate Trigger: Expiration of ‘New START’
- Date Significance: The New START treaty expires
- Background: New START was the last remaining nuclear arms control pact between the U.S. and Russia, limiting deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 each.
- Crisis: With its expiration today, and no replacement in sight, the world faces a future with no legal limits on the nuclear arsenals of the two superpowers for the first time in decades. This raises fears of an unchecked nuclear arms race.
Key Points:
Stagnation in Nuclear Deterrence Thinking:
- Since the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) divided the world into nuclear “haves” and “have-nots”, deterrence logic has remained largely unchanged.
- Despite new global threats (terrorism, climate change, inequality), nuclear weapons continue to be treated as the ultimate security guarantor.
- Debate since the early nuclear age:
- Uncertainty-based deterrence (fear of possible retaliation)
- Certainty-based deterrence (assured retaliation via large arsenals)
Models of Deterrence:
- India–Pakistan (1980s–1998): Deterrence through uncertainty.
- Israel: Nuclear opacity as a deterrent strategy.
- Major powers (U.S., Russia): Emphasis on certainty, stockpiles, and testing.
- Despite this, a strong taboo against nuclear use has prevailed:
- No nuclear weapon used since 1945.
- Even “usable” tactical nukes have not crossed the threshold.
Breakdown of Arms Control:
- Arms control and non-proliferation helped prevent nuclear use.
- However, stockpile reductions are reversing:
- China: 600 warheads; adding 100 annually since 2023.
- UK: Reversed cuts in 2015; 225 warheads.
- U.S. & Russia: 5,400 and 5,300 warheads respectively.
- Expiry of New START risks a return to Cold War-style arms racing.
The current moment represents a turning point for nuclear deterrence: trust in alliances is eroding, arms control is weakening, and real-world conflicts show that nuclear weapons may deter escalation but do not decide wars. How Europe restructures its security without unquestioned reliance on the U.S. will profoundly influence the future logic of nuclear deterrence.
Source: (The Hindu)
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