Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: India’s Relations with Major Countries, Issue: Shift in India’s Oil Import Strategy.
Context:
India’s Russian oil imports, which peaked at over 35-40% of its crude basket post-2022 Ukraine invasion, face pressure to decline sharply following a US trade deal but won’t halt entirely due to energy security, refinery dependencies, and strategic autonomy.
Key Takeaways:
- President Trump announced tariff cuts on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, claiming India agreed to stop Russian crude purchases Russia’s largest buyer and ramp up US/Venezuelan imports ($500B over 5 years in energy/tech).
- PM Modi welcomed the deal but stayed silent on oil specifics
- MEA prioritized 1.4B Indians’ energy needs and diversification amid market dynamics.
- Imports already fell from 2.09M bpd (June 2025 peak) to 1.16M bpd (Jan 2026) due to US sanctions on Rosneft/Lukoil.
Potential Shift in India’s Oil Import Strategy:
| Category | Key Details & Observations |
| Projected Reduction | Target Volume: Experts suggest that Russian oil imports could be reduced to around 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the medium term, Comparison: This is roughly half of the import volume recorded in January.Current Trend: Imports have already hit a 3-year low following US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. |
| Current Market Share | Dominance: despite the decline, Russian oil still held a 22% share of India’s total oil imports in January. |
| Replacement Options: US Oil | Pros: India is already increasing US imports.Cons: Shipping from the US is currently more expensive than from West Asia.US crude is “lighter/sweeter,” whereas Indian refineries are optimized for “medium-sour” crude (like Russian/West Asian). |
| Replacement Options: Venezuela | Pros: Venezuelan crude quality is similar to Russian oil (medium-sour), making it a good technical match.Cons (Supply): Production is capped at 1 million bpd with high US domestic demand.Feasibility: Increasing output meaningfully would require years and billions in investment. |
| Strategic Stance | Autonomy: India resists US pressure to dictate trade partners, citing “Strategic Autonomy.”Trade-off: The government previously weighed the cost of high US tariffs against the savings from discounted Russian oil.Policy: India is unlikely to completely sever ties with Russia, a key strategic partner, to avoid appearing to “buckle” under pressure. |
Way Ahead / Conclusion:
- India is likely to diversify gradually by increasing imports from the US, West Asia, and possibly Venezuela.
- A complete stop to Russian oil is unlikely in the near term due to cost, technical compatibility, and energy security concerns.
- The probable trajectory is a calibrated reduction—balancing economics, diplomacy, and strategic autonomy rather than an abrupt policy shift.
Source: (The Indian Express)
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