India faces acute climate exposure, with over 80% of its land area vulnerable to climate hazards and nearly 90% of its population living in risk-prone districts as per the World Bank. Yet adaptation spending remains around $13 billion annually – barely 10% of estimated requirements.
Structural weaknesses in India’s adaptation framework:
1. Institutional fragmentation:
- Agencies such as NDMA, IMD, MoEFCC and state bodies function in silos, leading to duplication and reactive relief-based responses.
- For example, Assam witnesses annual floods but basin-level floodplain planning remains limited.
2. Inconsistent risk methodologies:
- Different institutions use varied timelines and models for risk projections, leading to non-comparable data and weak planning integration.
- For example, Infrastructure projects often lack standardized climate stress testing aggravating urban flooding events like Chennai (2021).
3. Underinvestment relative to risk:
- At 2°C warming, India’s adaptation costs may exceed $200 billion annually, yet fiscal prioritization remains low.
- UNEP notes global adaptation finance is far below required levels, limiting developing countries’ preparedness.
4. Weak integration: Climate risks are insufficiently embedded in capital budgeting, urban master plans, and industrial corridors.
Role of a Unified Climate Physical Risk (CPR) framework:
A unified CPR framework can transform India’s adaptation strategy from fragmented and reactive to systemic and growth-aligned.
1. Standardized risk assessment across sectors:
- A CPR framework using IPCC’s hazard-exposure-vulnerability model (AR6) would harmonize methodologies across ministries.
- It enables comparable district-level risk mapping, improving prioritization of investments in heat-prone and flood-prone regions.
2. Evidence-based infrastructure planning:
- Mandatory CPR screening for major public infrastructure projects would ensure resilience at the design stage.
- For e.g., coastal areas could incorporate future rainfall and sea-level projections, reducing post-disaster reconstruction costs.
3. Efficient resource allocation:
- Unified risk metrics would direct adaptation finance towards high-risk districts
- McKinsey estimates that investments in adaptation can yield 7x returns in avoided damages.
4. Strengthening financial stability:
- A CPR-based disclosure framework aligned with RBI and global ESG norms would improve transparency of climate risks in banking and infrastructure lending.
- It reduces stranded asset risk in sectors like power, transport, and coastal real estate.
5. Shift from proactive resilience:
- CPR-driven early warning and predictive analytics enable anticipatory governance rather than disaster relief.
- For e.g., Ahmedabad’s Heat Action Plan (2013) reduced heat mortality through early warnings and cool-roof interventions.
Conclusion:
A unified Climate Physical Risk framework can convert India’s climate vulnerability into an opportunity for resilient, risk-informed economic development.
‘+1’ Value Addition:
- Between 2000 – 2019, India lost over $79.5 billion due to climate-related disasters (UNDRR).
- The ILO estimates India could lose 5.8% of total working hours by 2030 due to heat stress – equivalent to 34 million jobs.
- Odisha’s cyclone preparedness (post-1999 super cyclone reforms) reduced cyclone mortality drastically
- As per the World Bank, India may see 40 million internal climate migrants by 2050.
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