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Thermal Evolution of Solar Storms and Space Weather Forecasting (Source: PIB)

Context:

Scientists from the Indian Institute of Astrophysics (IIA) have discovered that nearly 45% of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) exhibit heating as they travel from the Sun to Earth. The findings can improve the prediction of severe space weather events affecting satellites, GPS, communications and power grids.

Explanation:

  • Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are massive eruptions of magnetised plasma from the Sun’s corona; when they travel through space, they are called Interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs).
  • Earth-directed ICMEs interact with Earth’s magnetosphere, causing geomagnetic storms.
  • Such storms can disrupt satellite operations, GPS, radio communication, aviation routes and power grids, while producing auroras.
  • Solar activity follows an 11-year Solar Cycle, with CMEs becoming more frequent during the solar maximum.
  • The study analysed 29 years (1995–2024) of observations near the L1 (Lagrange Point-1), about 1.5 million km from Earth.
  • Contrary to earlier assumptions, many ICMEs continue heating in transit, making them more geoeffective (capable of producing stronger geomagnetic storms).
  • Data from Aditya-L1 will further improve space weather prediction models.

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