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Super El Niño and Rising Heat-Mortality Risk in India (Source: The Hindu)

Context

A Climate Impact Lab report estimates that the ongoing Super El Niño could cause about 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India between September 2026 and February 2027. India’s southwest monsoon rainfall deficit was also about 15% below normal up to September 22, 2026.

Super El Niño

Explanation

  • El Niño is the abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, forming the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation).
  • It weakens the normal easterly trade winds and alters the Walker Circulation, affecting atmospheric circulation worldwide.
  • A Super El Niño is an informal term for an exceptionally strong El Niño, marked by unusually high Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs).
  • El Niño generally raises global mean temperatures because the tropical Pacific releases more stored heat into the atmosphere.
  • In India, El Niño is often associated with a weaker southwest monsoon and increased drought risk, though the relationship is not one-to-one.
  • Its impacts may include heatwaves, rainfall deficits, crop stress, wildfires, higher electricity demand and heat-related mortality. 

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