Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: India and its neighborhood, Issue: Strategic recalibration post Operation Sindoor.
Context:
Operation Sindoor, a recent Indian military operation against Pakistan has paused, prompting a strategic reassessment. There is a need for calculated diplomacy and deterrence, particularly in the evolving China-Pakistan axis and US-India dynamics.
Key Highlights:
Strategic Outcomes of Operation Sindoor:
- Short-term effects: Tactical military success for India; Pakistan achieved temporary nuclear deterrent reaffirmation.
- Psychological warfare: Pakistan’s strategy was to “re-hyphenate” with India at a global level using nuclear signaling.
- India’s restraint: Showed calibrated response, avoiding full escalation while conveying capability and resolve.
Nuclear Brinkmanship & Tactical Ambiguity:
| Element | India’s approach | Pakistan’s approach |
| Nuclear Posture | No First Use (NFU), | First Use ambiguity |
| Strategy | Calculated restraint | Nuclear shield for conventional conflict |
| Strategic ambiguity | Deterrence without provocation | Leverage nuclear threat for international attention |
| External Messaging Measured | Avoids provocation Seeks global mediation | Escalates tensions |
China-Pakistan Axis: The Two-front Challenge:
China’s role:
- Aiding Pakistan: Instrumental in helping Pakistan acquire nuclear capability.
- Continued support: Ongoing support via military tech and economic investments (e.g., CPEC).
- Synergy: Two-front war threat: China + Pakistan synergy demands revised Indian defence posture.
Implications for Indian Strategy:
- Strategic Calculations Must Evolve: India must recognize enhanced technological capabilities of adversaries and prioritize indigenous weapon system modernization.
- Deterrence Strategy: It must go beyond military means and include diplomatic, economic sanctions, cyber capabilities and psychological operations.
- Geopolitical Alignments:
- Maintain strong yet balanced relations with the USA.
- Avoid over-dependence; retain strategic autonomy.
- Maintain ambiguity to keep adversaries guessing.
Way ahead:
- Strategic posture: Develop structured military doctrines to counter two-front threats.
- Diplomacy: Build credibility through quiet but firm international positioning.
- Tactical ambiguity: Avoid predictability; keep options open to deter aggression.
- Internal consolidation: Improve civil-military coordination and strategic communication.
- Defence preparedness: Assess lessons from Sindoor for operational improvements.
Conclusion:
India needs a flexible, ambiguous yet firm foreign policy that reflects the reality of two-front threats, leverages diplomatic partnerships without dependence, and ensures deterrence through multiple tools, not just military force.
https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/after-operation-sindoor-calculate-10052611
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