Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: India and its neighbourhood, Issue: Implications of the recent China led trilateral.
Context:
First trilateral meeting between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh was held in Kunming, China. It follows an earlier China-led trilateral involving Afghanistan, indicating a growing China-led Trilateral Nexus aimed at shaping regional order, reducing India’s influence, and building a counterbalance.
Key Highlights:
China’s Use of Trilateral Forums:
- Sidelining India: Aim to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and build coalitions that sideline India.
- Presenting China as alternative: Present China as a regional integrator and security stakeholder as India’s increasing ties with Bangladesh and Afghanistan are seen as a challenge to China’s regional agenda.
- Proxy alliances: Desire to limit Indian influence in South Asia by using Pakistan as a proxy ally and bridge to other regional powers.
- Coerce India: Bangladesh and Afghanistan’s involvement helps to provide space for cross-border terror and act as pressure points on India.
Historical Background:
- 1962 War: The Sino-Indian War of 1962 shaped current alignments:
- China aligned with Pakistan to contain India.
- Pakistan became heavily dependent on China militarily and economically.
- By 2024:
- Pakistan’s arms imports from China = 60%.
- Over $29 billion in Chinese investment in Pakistan.
- Diplomatic cover by China to shield Pakistan-based terrorists in the UN.
Challenges for India:
- Resurfacing of Encirclement Tactics:
- Revival of old geopolitical strategies such as isolating India using Nepal and Sri Lanka.
- Past attacks (Uri 2016, Pulwama 2019) show how terrorism is used as a strategic tool.
- Changing Regimes and changed Responses:
- New governments in Afghanistan and Bangladesh are more open to China-Pakistan engagement.
- Both countries previously supported India against terror; now, they are less critical of Pakistan.
Consequently, India’s diplomatic space in the neighbourhood is narrowing.
India’s response:
- Diplomatic means: Pursuing diplomatic counterweight through regional isolation of Pakistan and blocking access to markets, ports, water treaties.
- Economic Isolation of Pakistan:
- Stalling CPEC in PoK.
- Engaging Afghanistan and Bangladesh diplomatically.
- Strengthening military presence along borders (e.g., Galwan, Doklam).
- Strategic Caution:
- India must avoid overreaction and sustain pragmatic engagement.
- Balance between countering terror and avoiding unnecessary escalation.
- Keep economic/infrastructure ties open with neighbours to counterbalance BRI.
Structural Challenges in the Trilateral Nexus:
- Dwindling Chinese influence: China’s economic leverage itself is waning, especially in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
- Intra-group contradictions: Further, internal conflicts, poor governance, and dependency will limit the influence of the grouping.
- India’s pre-eminence: India’s soft power and regional influence is still strong enough to resonate across South Asia.
Conclusion:
China’s trilaterals with Pakistan and regional actors are strategic instruments to shape South Asian geopolitics. India must stay alert but pursue calculated diplomacy, economic engagement, and regional cooperation.
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