Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: India’s foreign policy, Issue: India’s role as a swing power.
Context:
The past six months have shown the limits of India’s power projection. India could not deter China from supporting Pakistan during conflict nor prevent the US from imposing trade tariffs. It raises the question: Can India become a global swing power?
Key Highlights:
Understanding Swing Power:
- Definition: A state that is not firmly aligned with either major power bloc but whose support is essential for both.
- Significance:
- Swing powers can extract concessions, aid, or influence by balancing relations.
- Example: Brazil, South Africa, and Gulf states occasionally play swing roles in global politics.
Why India Is Not Yet a Swing Power:
- Foreign Policy Alignment
- Tilted towards the US since early 2000s, especially in defence and strategic affairs.
- Limited enthusiasm for aligning with China.
- Geopolitical Constraints
- Deep structural differences with China (border disputes, strategic rivalry).
- India reluctant to accept subordinate status vis-à-vis China.
- Economic & Military Gaps
- Still lacks the comprehensive economic and technological leverage to compel great powers.
Why India Should Aim to Become a Swing Power:
- Strategic Rationale:
- Between the US and China, India benefits when their rivalry remains sharp.
- Can leverage its position to gain diplomatic, economic, and security advantages.
- Global Context:
- Multipolar world order demands flexible alignments.
- Swing status enhances India’s autonomy and bargaining power.
Conditions for India to Be a Swing Power:
- Better Relations with Major Powers: Manage stable, pragmatic ties with both US and China simultaneously.
- Deliver Tangible Gains
- Must demonstrate ability to provide both benefits and costs to either side.
- Enhance trade, technology partnerships, and security capacity.
- Independent Strategic Identity
- Avoid overdependence on any bloc.
- Strengthen self-reliance and resilience in key sectors.
Challenges:
- Geopolitical Rivalry: Sino-Indian conflicts limit room for manoeuvre.
- Domestic Capacity Gaps: Economic, military, and technological limitations constrain options.
- Risk of Over commitment: Aligning too closely with one bloc reduces swing potential.
Way Forward:
- Strengthen comprehensive national power (economy, technology, military).
- Adopt strategic flexibility instead of rigid alignments.
- Build institutional foreign policy capacity to manage complex relations.
- Pursue issue-based coalitions (e.g., climate, trade, security) to enhance leverage.
Conclusion:
India is not yet a global swing power, but achieving this status should be a key strategic goal. By balancing relations with major powers, enhancing its own capabilities, and projecting autonomy, India can secure greater global influence and shape outcomes in its favour.
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