Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: Global issues, Issue: Recent strikes on Iran and implications for Iran’s Nuclear Programme.
Context:
Military strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and scientists raise the question: Can Iran’s Nuclear Programme be dismantled through military means?
Key Highlights:
Inside Iran’s Nuclear Programme:
- Strategic Design: Iran has created a militarily resilient nuclear infrastructure.
- Key Sites:
- Fordow and Natanz – deeply buried under reinforced concrete and rock.
- Located inside mountains, e.g., Fordow is 80–100 meters underground.
- Protection Features: The sites are air-defended with layered systems. Further the use of bunkers makes aerial attacks largely ineffective.
Limitations of Military Options Iran’s nuclear sites:
- Challenges for Conventional Weapons: Even precision-guided munitions like the U.S. GBU-57 MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) may not guarantee complete destruction. MOPs require optimal conditions (e.g., hardened targets at shallow depth).
- Reconstruction Capability: Iran has demonstrated an ability to quickly rebuild damaged infrastructure (e.g., post-2010 Stuxnet attack).
- Historical Precedents vs. Iran Case: Though Israel destroyed Iraq’s Osirak reactor (1981) and Syria’s al-Kibar (2007) nuclear sites. Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is spread out, deeply buried, and technologically matured.
- Integrated facilities: Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is integrated with military-industrial complex and scientific institutions Unlike Syria/Iraq where no visible or centralized “bomb factory” exists.
- Iranian Deterrence: Iran has warned that military action would provoke a “crushing” retaliation and demonstrated capabilities through regional allies and missile/drone strikes.
- Cycle of Escalation: Bombing Iran could escalate into a “forever war” cycle of tit-for-tat.
A Better Alternative:
- Reviving JCPOA: 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action curbed Iran’s uranium enrichment. U.S. exit under Trump weakened the deal though recent talks have aimed to restore terms.
- IAEA Monitoring: Iran continues to allow inspections under IAEA. Current enrichment levels (up to 60%) are still below weapons-grade (90%).
- Pragmatic approach: Diplomacy, verification, economic sanctions, and regional cooperation offer a more sustainable approach.
Conclusion:
Iran’s nuclear programme is a hardened, dispersed, and resilient system. A surgical military strike is unlikely to fully dismantle it and could backfire strategically. For international peace and stability, reviving diplomacy and multilateral agreements like the JCPOA is crucial.
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