Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: India and Its Neighborhood, Issue: India – Myanmar Strategic Ties.
Context:
Five years after the February 2021 military coup, Myanmar held elections in late December 2025 -January 2026 to project political normalcy. However, the polls were widely viewed as controlled and non-inclusive. This has created a strategic dilemma for India, which must balance democratic values with security and connectivity interests in its eastern neighbourhood.
Key Highlights:
About the Elections:
- Conducted in three phases, with voting allowed in only 265 of 330 townships.
- Military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) secured a sweeping victory.
- Voter turnout was around 55% (13.14 million of 24 million eligible voters), down from nearly 70% in 2015 and 2020.
- Opposition parties like the National League for Democracy (NLD) were dissolved; leaders including Aung San Suu Kyi remain jailed.
- Polls were largely restricted to urban areas, while rural regions remain under resistance control.
Conflict and Political Situation:
- Since the 2021 coup: over 7,700 people killed and more than 30,000 arrested; over 1,13,000 homes destroyed.
- Resistance groups and ethnic armed organisations control large territories, including around 91 towns.
- Elections have not reduced conflict; instability is expected to continue.
Implications for India:
- Myanmar shares a 1,643-km border with India; instability directly affects northeastern States.
- Refugee inflows continue; about 90,100 displaced Myanmar nationals are in Mizoram and Manipur.
- Major connectivity projects like the Kaladan project and Trilateral Highway face delays due to conflict.
- Security threats rising: narcotics trafficking, human trafficking, cyber scam networks.
- Since 2022, over 2,100 Indians have been rescued from cyber-crime centres in Myanmar border regions.
Strategic Dilemma:
- Myanmar is crucial for India’s Act East Policy and access to Southeast Asia.
- India must protect security and infrastructure interests while avoiding legitimising the military regime.
- Western nations and ASEAN have largely refused to recognise the election results, complicating diplomatic choices.
Myanmar military elections have not brought stability, leaving India to navigate a complex balance between democratic principles and strategic necessities. Continued instability along the border, security risks, and stalled connectivity projects make sustained but cautious engagement the most practical path for New Delhi.
Source: (The Hindu)
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