Rain shocks

Syllabus: GS- I, Subject: Geography, Topic: Indian climate, Issue: Rainfall distribution

Context: The India Meteorological Department(IMD) forecasted a 6% surplus in monsoon rainfall from June to September

Factors leading to above average monsoon:

  • IMD’s forecast relies on La Niña and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, potentially leading to excessive rainfall.
  • June and July are expected to have neutral conditions, with no El Niño or La Niña.
  • El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a recurring climate pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. El Niño is the warm phase, while La Niña is the cool phase.


  • Two dry months followed by heavy rains may lead to floods, as seen in the 2018 Kerala disaster.

The way ahead:

  • Immediate action is needed based on the current IMD signal.
  • States must draft emergency plans, reinforce infrastructure, and prepare evacuation strategies.
  • Audits of dam stability and distress signaling networks are crucial.
  • Early-warning systems need to be broadened.
  • Farmers must be informed about the potential for a stronger second half of the monsoon to adjust their sowing plans accordingly.
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