Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: India’s relations with major powers, Issue: India’s triangular dynamics with US, Russia and China.
Context:
The US-Russia-China power dynamics significantly influence India’s security environment. India faces a security threat from China and has a territorial dispute with it. India traditionally seeks good relations with both the US and Russia for strategic balance.
Key Highlights:
Historical Background:
Cold War Era:
- Indo-Soviet ties: India maintained relations with both the US and Soviet Union, but leaned toward the USSR due to support in military technology, political backing in the UN and common stance against China post-1962 war.
- U.S-China ties: The US was seen as closer to Pakistan and less supportive on Kashmir.
Post-Cold War:
- Collapse of USSR brought uncertainty in the India–Russia ties.
- Post 1990s: Russia sought to regain great power status; China emerged as a new strategic competitor.
Current Dynamics:
US–India Convergence:
- Shared interest in balancing China in the Indo-Pacific.
- Strategic partnership strengthened via defence cooperation and joint exercises.
India–Russia Defence Ties:
- Russia remains a critical supplier of advanced military platforms and high-tech systems such as nuclear-powered submarine lease.
- Defence cooperation continued despite growing Russia–China closeness.
Russia–China Closeness:
- Russia moving closer to China post-Ukraine war.
- This affects India’s strategic space, as a China-leaning Russia may reduce defence cooperation with India.
US–Russia Hostility:
- Ongoing Ukraine war has deepened US–Russia hostility.
- India risks being caught between strategic partners who are adversaries.
Challenges for India:
- Balancing relations between US and Russia amid deepening hostility.
- Managing defence dependence on Russia while expanding cooperation with the US.
- Navigating US–China rivalry without provoking Chinese aggression.
- Coping with global supply chain, technology, and sanctions regimes linked to great power politics.
- The weakening of US–Russia ties and rise of Russia–China partnership limits India’s diplomatic manoeuvrability.
- US focus on Indo-Pacific may get distracted by Ukraine and European security commitments.
- India’s position becomes more precarious if US–China rivalry intensifies while Russia backs China.
Way ahead:
- Diversify defence procurement to reduce overdependence on Russia.
- Strengthen Quad and Indo-Pacific partnerships without alienating Russia.
- Pursue multi-alignment to keep strategic options open.
- Invest in indigenous defence manufacturing to secure long-term autonomy.
Conclusion:
The triangular tension among US, Russia, and China creates a strategic nightmare for India. India must skill fully manage relationships to avoid being forced into a camp and to protect its security, economic, and geopolitical interests.
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