Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: India and Its Neighborhood, Issue: China’s Military Restructuring.
Context:
The recent investigation and removal of senior People’s Liberation Army (PLA) generals signal significant political shifts within China’s military hierarchy. While the purges may suggest a temporary reduction in military assertiveness, historical precedents indicate that periods of internal instability can lead to aggressive military actions.
Key Highlights:
Historical Context of Military Actions:
China’s history illustrates a pattern of military action during periods of internal instability:
- Korean War (1950-1953): Military engagement during a time of domestic challenges.
- Sino-Indian War (1962): An aggressive military response amid internal pressures.
- Sino-Soviet Border Conflict (1969): Military clashes during a tumultuous period.
- Vietnam War (1979): A military operation framed as a lesson to Vietnam amidst domestic concerns.
Key Observations:
Erosion of Trust in Senior Leadership:
- Investigation of top generals signals Xi Jinping’s declining trust in PLA leadership.
- Removal of close allies raises credibility concerns but strengthens Xi’s control.
- Anti-corruption drive highlights deep structural problems within the PLA.
Resilience of PLA Modernization:
- Leadership purges unlikely to halt military modernization.
- Strong institutional systems, funding, and industrial support ensure continuity.
Operational Continuity Amid Leadership Changes:
- Theatre commands and operational units continue functioning normally.
- Lack of experienced top leaders may cause miscommunication and political sensitivity.
- Higher risk of local misjudgments, especially along the India–China border.
Implications for Taiwan and India:
Xi’s PLA Purges reflect personnel changes, not strategic retreat. Politicization under Xi may create anxiety and assertiveness. India should expect continued competition, instability, and possible border escalations, as core ambitions and territorial disputes remain unchanged largely.
Source: (The Indian Express)
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