Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: Global Issues, Issue: Iran’s Widening Protest Wave.
Context:
Iran is currently experiencing its largest wave of protests in three years, with unrest reported across all provinces. The protests began with merchants in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar protesting against soaring inflation and economic concerns.
Key Takeaways:
- These demonstrations have evolved into broader anti-regime protests, resulting in clashes with security forces and casualties.
| India has issued an advisory urging its nationals to avoid any non-essential travel to Iran until further notice amid the ongoing protests. Iran (Capital: Tehran) Political Features Member of: BRICS, SCO, OPEC. Land Boundaries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan (North); Afghanistan and Pakistan (East); Iraq and Turkey (West). Maritime Boundaries: Caspian Sea (North), Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman (South). Geographical Features: Lake Urmia, an endorheic salt lake, is the largest lake in the Middle East. Resource Potential Natural Gas (2nd position in the world) Proven Crude Oil Reserves (4th). |
Vulnerable Moment:
These protests occur at a particularly vulnerable time in Iran’s recent history:
- Inflation: Inflation grew by at least 30% in 2025, exceeding 52%, with average monthly food inflation reaching 7%.
- Currency Depreciation: The Iranian Rial lost more than half its value in the past year, reaching a record low of around 1,480,500 against the US dollar.
- Damaged Domestic Image: Bombings by the US and Israel last year have dented the country’s domestic image.
Economic Trigger:
In the last five years, the economic trigger has become significantly potent due to recurring foreign exchange crises, high inflation, and low domestic purchasing power, exacerbated by US and UN sanctions.
The ‘Regime-Change’ Question:
The question of whether these protests can cause significant shifts in the Iranian political system is relevant. However, two crucial elements make this question premature:
- IRGC Support: A large enough section of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) must be willing to aid a significant transition.
- The IRGC benefits from the corrupt systems and is unlikely to step aside during an uprising.
- Public Administration: There is little evidence to show that Iranians are willing to upend the state’s bureaucratic institutions responsible for daily public administration.
- The upheaval of a revolution will arguably worsen Iranians’ current economic plight.
Moment of Weakness:
- Soaring Inflation
- Shrinking Geopolitical Influence
- Damaged Domestic Image
Other Areas of Vulnerability:
- Geopolitical Weakness: Iran is arguably at its weakest since 1979, with the loss of a state ally in Syria, the decapitation of its principal non-state ally in Lebanon (Hezbollah), and an increasingly dominant Israel backed by the Trump administration.
- Succession: Iran’s military and political elites are preparing for Ayatollah Khamenei’s succession, which will likely be a sensitive and potentially unstable process.
While Iran’s protests remain unwieldy in organization, their snowballing nature could lead to uncertain outcomes. These factors demand internal stability for regime preservation.
Source: (The Indian Express)
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