Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: India Relation with Major Countries, Issue: India – Russia Relation.
Context:
India–Russia ties, shaped over seven decades, face new pressures as Putin visits amid sanctions on Russia and US tariff challenges for India, making the engagement crucial in a rapidly shifting global landscape.
Key Takeaways:
Historical Context and Evolving Dynamics:
- Early Years: Vladimir Putin’s first visit to India in 2000, during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s premiership, occurred when both nations faced challenges.
- India was under Western sanctions post-Pokhran-II, and Russia was recovering from the Soviet Union’s collapse.
- Similarities and Differences: Twenty-five years later, Putin’s visit takes place amidst renewed global tensions. Russia faces Western sanctions due to the Ukraine war, and India is experiencing secondary sanctions and tariffs from the US.
- Despite these similarities, both countries have significantly evolved.
- India’s Diversification: India has cultivated strong relationships with the West, including the US, focusing on security, defense, economic, and people-centric partnerships.
Expected Outcomes of Putin’s Visit:
- High-Profile Visit: Delhi is preparing to host Putin with a private dinner, state banquet, bilateral meetings, and an address to CEOs, emphasizing the importance of the visit.
- Potential Agreements: Progress is likely on a labor mobility pact, negotiations for a trade deal with the Eurasian Economic Union, new defense purchases (including additional S-400 systems and Sukhoi aircraft), and access for Indian goods (perishables, pharmaceuticals) to the Russian market.
Defense Cooperation:
- Reduced Dependence: India has decreased its reliance on Russian defense imports over time.
- Legacy Equipment: A significant portion (approximately 60%) of India’s defense equipment is still of Russian origin, requiring spares and servicing.
- S-400 Acquisition
The Oil Question and Trade:
- Discounted Oil: India began purchasing discounted Russian oil after the Ukraine war, helping to manage fuel prices.
- Bilateral Trade: Bilateral trade reached a record high of $68.7 billion in FY 2024-25, but it is imbalanced, with India’s imports from Russia (mainly oil) significantly exceeding exports.
- Tariff Challenges: US tariffs and secondary sanctions have removed the cost benefit of Russian oil, likely reducing India’s imports and threatening the $100-billion trade goal.
India’s Balancing Strategy:
India–Russia ties face a pivotal moment as shifting geopolitics, sanctions and China’s rise reshape priorities. India will diversify partnerships while maintaining essential defence and energy links, testing the partnership’s long-term resilience.
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