“Discuss the changing nature of warfare in the 21st century and analyse its implications for India. (15M)

The 21st century has witnessed a radical transformation in the nature of warfare. Wars such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza have showcased the rise of hybrid, multi-domain, and prolonged wars, forcing nations including India to re-evaluate their defence doctrines and preparedness.

Changing Nature of Warfare in the 21st Century:

1. From Conventional to Hybrid and Multi-Domain Warfare:
2. Earlier Wars were fought primarily on land, sea, and air but now Conflicts include cyberattacks, information warfare, space-based operations, and economic coercion.
3. For example, Russia’s hybrid strategy in Ukraine is characterised by disinformation and kinetic attack.

2.   Rise of Non-Kinetic and Remote Warfare:

• Use of drones, cyber tools, electronic warfare has reduced the need for large-scale troop deployments.
• For example, Iran’s drone swarm attack on Israel in 2024, Russia-Ukraine’s extensive use of UAVs and cyber strikes.

3.   Technological Revolution:

• AI, Machine Learning, Quantum computing, Hypersonic missiles, and Autonomous systems are redefining war tactics.
• For Example, Ukraine’s use of AI for battlefield targeting, U.S. and China’s investment in sixth-generation fighter jets.

4.   Prolonged and Attritional Conflicts:

• Wars are becoming longer, draining economic and military resources.
• For example, Russia-Ukraine war (ongoing since 2022), Gaza conflict (8+ months with no political resolution).

5.   Civilian Involvement:

• Private companies now play strategic roles (e.g., Starlink’s internet for Ukraine, Microsoft’s cyber defence).
• Non-state actors like Hamas and Houthis use low-cost tech (drones, rockets) to challenge advanced militaries.

6.   Weakening of Global Conflict Resolution Mechanisms:

• Institutions like UNSC are ineffective in preventing or resolving modern wars.
• Geopolitical alliances and proxy wars are shaping modern battlefields (e.g., NATO-Russia tensions).

Implications for India:

1.    Reassessment of Doctrines and War Preparedness:

• India’s current doctrines, shaped by conventional wars (e.g., 1971, Kargil), need updating. There is a need to shift towards multi-domain operations, cyber integration, and space-based command structures.

2.   Long-Duration War Readiness:

• India must prepare for sustained conflicts against China or Pakistan. It needs to strengthen logistics, ammunition reserves, and defence infrastructure (especially in border areas).

3.   Manpower and Reservist Reforms:

• Ukraine’s manpower crisis highlights the need for trained reserves. India must re-evaluate the Agnipath Scheme, enhance military training, and build a reserve force for rapid deployment.

4.   Defence Technological Self-Reliance:

• India is still the world’s largest arms importer (SIPRI 2024). India must invest it UAVs, hyper-sonics, AI-powered platforms, and quantum-secure communications.
• For example, India’s progress,Tejas, ATAGS, K-9 Vajra, and Dhanush guns show momentum, but imports still dominate critical tech.

5.   Cyber and Information Warfare Preparedness:

• As India faces frequent cyberattacks and cross-border misinformation (especially during elections and border crises, there is a need to establish dedicated Cyber Command, counter-disinformation teams, and invest in quantum encryption.

6.   Nuclear Policy:

• With China and Pakistan modernising their arsenals, and global arms control weakening, India must reassess nuclear doctrine (especially “No First Use”), modernise delivery systems and ensure credible minimum deterrence.

7.    Budgetary and Structural Constraints:

• With over 55% of India’s defence budget going to salaries and pensions, limiting capital acquisitions, India must balance manpower and modernisation, enhance defence R&D, and increase private sector FDI participation.

8.   Strengthening Military Diplomacy:

• India must diversify military engagements with tech-advanced nations, conduct joint exercises (e.g., Yudh Abhyas, Garuda, Varuna) and sign logistics-sharing pacts and enhance interoperability.

Conclusion:

India’s military transformation must be holistic, encompassing doctrinal revision, technological self-reliance, enhanced deterrence, and deeper international defence partnerships.

‘+1′ value addition:

• India’s Defence Budget (2025–26): USD 78.7 billion vs. China’s USD 236 billion in 2023.
• Defence Exports: Increased from ₹686 crore (2013–14) to ₹21,083 crore (2023–24).
• SIPRI 2024 report showsIndia as the world’s largest arms importer (9.8% share).
• iDEX, SRIJAN, and Defence Industrial Corridors (UP & Tamil Nadu) initiatives must be leveraged.

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