Context:
A recent paper (EPW, 2025) using survey-to-survey imputation methods estimates that India’s poverty fell only marginally from 22% in 2011-12 to 18% in 2022-23, in contrast to a significant drop from 37% in 2004-05 to 22% in 2011-12. The absence of official poverty estimates since 2011-12 has made reliance on alternate methods and surveys necessary, highlighting both the data vacuum and stagnation in poverty reduction
Model Answer:
Poverty is defined as a state where an individual lacks basic needs such as food, shelter, education, and healthcare. In India, poverty measurement has historically been based on the Tendulkar Committee (2009) and Rangarajan Committee (2014). However, since 2011-12, no official poverty estimates have been released, making independent academic estimates crucial.
Methodological Challenges in Estimating Poverty Post-2011:
- Lack of Comparable Consumption Surveys: The absence of a full Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) between 2011–2022 hampers trend analysis.
Example: The scrapped 2017–18 CES left a critical data gap, affecting comparability with 2011–12.
- Use of Non-Standard Measures like UMPCE: UMPCE in PLFS uses a single, ill-defined question to estimate consumption, reducing reliability.
Example: PLFS-based poverty estimates for 2019–20 range from 26–30%, indicating wide variance.
- Inconsistent Base Years Across Surveys: Surveys conducted in intervening years often rely on different reference periods and recall methods.
Example: The 2014–15 NSS survey on services used a different design than 2011–12 CES.
Trends and Regional Disparities in Poverty Reduction:
- Stalled National Poverty Decline Post-2011: While poverty fell from 37% to 22% by 2011–12, it only dropped to 18% by 2022–23.
Example: Himanshu et al. estimate 250 million poor in 2011–12 vs 225 million in 2022–23.
- Success in Populous States like Uttar Pradesh: Some States showed marked improvements, altering historic poverty rankings.
Example: UP witnessed significant reduction due to welfare delivery and infrastructure push.
- Sluggish Progress in Eastern India: States like Jharkhand and Bihar continue to lag despite policy focus.
Example: Persistently high poverty in Bihar attributed to poor job creation and low literacy.
- Stagnation in Advanced States: Central and Southern States have seen stagnation in poverty reduction despite higher GDPs.
Example: Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh showed minimal gains since 2011–12.
- Divergent Urban-Rural Poverty Trends:
Example: According to the NITI Aayog Multidimensional Poverty Index (2023), India saw a sharper decline in rural poverty (from 32.59% in 2015–16 to 19.28% in 2019–21) compared to urban poverty (which declined from 8.65% to 5.27%) — in absolute terms, more people exited poverty in rural areas due to focused interventions like housing, toilets, and clean fuel.
Socio-Economic Indicators Supporting Slower Poverty Decline:
- Deceleration in GDP Growth: Post-2011, GDP growth slowed to 5.7% per annum, affecting income mobility.
Example: Poverty decline aligned with higher growth between 2004–2011 (6.9%).
- Wage Growth Compression: Real wage growth halved from 4.13% to 2.3%, limiting consumption and savings.
Example: WRRI data by Labour Bureau reflects stagnating rural wages post-2012.
- Reversal in Farm Sector Workforce Trends: Shift of workers back to agriculture indicates distress migration.
Example: 68 million added to agriculture sector after 2017–18 per PLFS.
Policy and Governance Gaps Hindering Poverty Alleviation:
- Weak Social Protection Infrastructure: Leakages and exclusions undermine the effectiveness of welfare schemes.
Example: SECC data inconsistencies affected the targeting of PMAY and PDS.
- Delayed Data Publication and Transparency: Lack of timely, reliable data affects policy design and accountability.
Example: The delay in releasing CES 2022–23 limits mid-course corrections.
- Low Budgetary Allocation to Social Sector: Public expenditure on health, education, and nutrition remains below global benchmarks.
Example: India spends only ~1.2% of GDP on health vs WHO’s 5% recommendation.
Recommendations and Way Forward for Accelerated Poverty Reduction:
- Conduct Regular, Comparable Poverty Surveys: Institutionalize five-year CES and align questions with global best practices.
Example: Restore credibility of HCES as the benchmark for poverty tracking.
- Strengthen Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) Ecosystem: Expand and audit DBT architecture to reduce leakages and improve coverage.
Example: JAM trinity streamlined PDS delivery in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.
- Enhance Rural Livelihood Diversification: Promote non-farm employment via skilling, MSME support, and rural enterprise.
Example: Deen Dayal Grameen Kaushalya Yojana (DDU-GKY) needs scaling.
- Targeted Support for Lagging States: Special financial packages and decentralised planning can address chronic poverty.
Example: Aspirational Districts Programme focuses on backward regions like Malkangiri.
Conclusion:
Poverty reduction requires more than economic growth — it needs inclusive policies, reliable data, employment creation, and targeted welfare. Restoring robust household expenditure surveys, reforming agriculture, and reviving rural wage growth are essential to place India back on the trajectory of broad-based development.
‘+1’ Value Addition:
- Poverty: 22% in 2011–12 (Tendulkar line); 18% in 2022–23 (Himanshu et al.)
- Real rural wages: 2.3% growth (2011–2023) vs 4.13% (2004–2012)
- Workers added to agriculture: +68 million since 2017-18
- Tendulkar Committee (2009): Changed poverty line methodology
- Rangarajan Committee (2014): Broader multidimensional poverty
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