Critically examine the implications of the recent China’s dam (Yarlung dam) building activity over Brahmaputra River. How can India address the issue?

China’s plan to construct the world’s largest hydropower project (Yarlung dam) on the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) River in Medog County, Tibet near the Indian border has raised critical concerns. With a proposed capacity of 60 GW, it deeply affects India’s water security, ecology, and geopolitics.

Implications:

1. Weaponization of Water:
   1. China could manipulate water flows holding back or releasing excess water to gain coercive leverage, especially during border tensions.
   1. For example, this risk is highlighted by past unannounced discharges, such as the 2000 flash flood in Arunachal Pradesh.
2. Border Proximity and Surveillance:
   1. Location in Medog, close to Arunachal Pradesh (claimed by China), enhances its strategic oversight. This creates a dual-use infrastructure: power generation and national security.
3. Asymmetric Advantage:
   1. China enjoys upper riparian dominance over India and Bangladesh, with no binding water-sharing agreement, unlike the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan.

Environmental Implications:

1. Reduced Sediment Load:
   1. Brahmaputra carries 735 million tonnes/year of sediments crucial for agriculture in Assam and Bangladesh. Chinese dams will trap sediments, reducing soil fertility and affecting millions of farmers.
2. Floods and Dry Season Shortages:
   1. Sudden releases may cause flash floods, especially in flood-prone Assam. In contrast, water retention in dry seasons will reduce flow, affecting irrigation, fisheries, and hydropower.
3. Ecological Fragility:
   1. Dam construction in the seismically active Eastern Himalayas risks earthquakes, landslides, and glacial lake outbursts. It threatens aquatic biodiversity, including the endangered Gangetic Dolphin, are substantial.
4. Climate Change Concerns:
   1. The Tibetan Plateau (Third Pole) is highly sensitive to climate change. Glacial melt could alter long-term water availability, exacerbating uncertainties.

Diplomatic Implications:

1. No Treaty Framework:
   1. China is not a signatory to the UN Convention on Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (1997). Current mechanisms like the Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) are limited to data-sharing during flood season.
2. Opaque Hydrological Practices:
   1. China’s poor record of transparency with Mekong and Brahmaputra data complicates cooperation. Lack of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) violates norms of equitable water use.
3. Regional Friction:
   1. The project may undermine India’s relations with Bangladesh and Bhutan, who share Brahmaputra Basin vulnerabilities. ASEAN nations such as Vietnam and Thailand have also faced similar issues due to China’s Mekong dams.

India’s approach to address the issue:

1. Infrastructure Response:
   1. India’s Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (SUMP) and Dibang Valley projects in Arunachal Pradesh aim to build water storage and hydropower capacity. These projects can act as counter-regulatory structures downstream.
2. Technological Surveillance:
   1. India should expand space-based monitoring via ISRO satellites and integrate AI-driven flood prediction systems.
3. Diplomatic Push:
   1. Leverage platforms like BIMSTEC, BBIN, and Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin forums. Also collaborate with international partners like U.S., Japan, and Taiwan on transboundary water governance.
4. Multilateral Engagement:
   1. Utilize ICJ and international water law principles to advocate for equitable utilization and no-harm rule.
   1. Encourage regional water-sharing frameworks with Bangladesh and Bhutan.
5. Disaster Preparedness:
   1. Enhance early warning systems, flood-resistant infrastructure, and disaster resilience in Northeast India.

Conclusion:

A calibrated strategy combining infrastructure development, science-based surveillance, and robust diplomacy is essential. As aptly stated, “It is the weak who protest loudly. The strong do something about it.” India must act with strength, foresight, and collaboration to secure its water future.

‘+1’ Value Addition:

• Three Gorges Dam: Previous instance of China using large dams as power and flood control tools.
• Mekong River Crisis: Southeast Asian nations accused China of water hoarding, causing droughts downstream.
• UN Convention on Watercourses (1997): Although not signed by China, offers legal frameworks India can invoke.
• Siang Flash Floods (2000): highlighted the consequences of unannounced discharges.

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