Context
Kerala’s Crude Birth Rate (CBR) declined to 9.64 per 1,000 population in 2024, falling below 10 for the first time, according to the State’s Vital Statistics Report. The data reflects an accelerated demographic transition, raising concerns about population ageing and future workforce challenges.
Explanation:
- Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is the number of live births per 1,000 population in a year, while the Crude Death Rate (CDR) is the number of deaths per 1,000 population in a year.
- Demographic Transition is the shift from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a society develops through economic growth, urbanization, education, and improved healthcare.
- Kerala is in the advanced stage of demographic transition, characterized by low fertility, high life expectancy, and an ageing population.
- A sustained decline in fertility increases the old-age dependency ratio, reduces the working-age population, and may affect economic growth, labour supply, and social security systems.
- The Sample Registration System (SRS), under the Registrar General of India (RGI), is the principal source of annual estimates of birth rate, death rate, infant mortality rate (IMR), and Total Fertility Rate (TFR).
- Replacement-level fertility is approximately 2.1 children per woman, below which population eventually begins to decline in the absence of migration.
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