CONTEXT: A study published in Environmental Research: Climate estimates that India’s forests could store almost twice the current carbon by the end of the century. The projections are based on climate-driven changes such as rising CO₂ levels and rainfall patterns
EXPLANATION:
- India’s forests currently act as major carbon sinks by absorbing atmospheric CO₂ through photosynthesis and storing it as biomass in trees and soil.
- Official estimates by Forest Survey of India provide baseline carbon stock data used for planning and reporting.
- The study projects that vegetation carbon could increase by 35% under low emissions and up to 97% under high emissions by 2100.
- This increase is driven by higher rainfall, which improves soil moisture, and rising atmospheric CO₂ levels.
- Higher CO₂ enhances plant growth through the CO₂ fertilisation effect, where plants photosynthesise more efficiently, use water more effectively, and accumulate greater biomass over time.
- The study changes the conventional view by showing that forest carbon storage is not static but dynamically influenced by climate variables.
REGIONAL PATTERN:
- Desert and semi-arid regions such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, and parts of Madhya Pradesh are expected to witness the highest relative increase in vegetation carbon.
- The Trans-Himalayan region, Gangetic plains, and Deccan Plateau are likely to experience moderate gains.
- The Western Ghats and Himalayan forests are projected to see relatively smaller increases due to ecological saturation and climatic constraints.
LIMITATIONS (OF STUDY/MODELS):
- Models may not fully capture deforestation, fires, pests, and land-use change.
- Forest response is slow and often delayed by 2–4 years.
- Extreme events may destabilise forests and release stored carbon.
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