Why in News?
PM Modi announced a High-Powered Demography Mission on Independence Day 2025 to address demographic changes, after a similar 2024 Budget proposal for a committee never materialized. Concerns include high fertility in states like Bihar and population shifts along border regions.
Description:
- Definition: The economic growth potential arising when the working-age population (15–64 years) becomes larger than the dependent population (children & elderly).
- India is in this phase due to declining fertility and mortality rates, coupled with rising life expectancy.
India’s Demographic Transition:
- Census 2011:
- 48% working-age (15–59 years)
- 31% children (0–14 years)
- 9% elderly (60+ years)
- Dependency Ratio declined from 64% (2001) → 55% (2011).
- Economic Survey 2018–19: Demographic dividend to peak around 2041 (59% in 20–59 years group).
- Median Age (2025): ~28 years (one of the youngest in the world).
Fertility Rate & Demographic Dividend:
- Total Fertility Rate (TFR) = Average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years.
- India’s Fertility Decline:
- 1951 → 5.9 births per woman
- NFHS-5 (2019–21) → 2.0, below replacement level (2.1)
- Factors behind decline:
- Widespread use of contraceptives
- Rising female literacy & age of marriage
- Urbanisation and lifestyle changes
- Implication for Demographic Dividend:
- Falling fertility → lower child dependency → higher working-age share → more savings & productivity.
- But, regional variation: Southern states already below replacement level; Northern states still higher (population momentum).
Features of India’s Demographic Dividend:
- The working-age population has exceeded dependents since 2018.
- By 2030 → 800 million+ labour force.
- Female Labour Force Participation ↑ (19.7% in 2011 → 37% in 2023).
- Unique long window: 2005–06 to 2055–56 (≈ 50 years; longer than China).
Opportunities:
- Economic Growth: Boost to domestic demand, higher savings.
- Innovation: Young workforce drives startups (India = 3rd largest startup hub).
- Global Workforce: India as a talent exporter.
Policy Measures:
- Health: Increase public spending (>1.2% of GDP).
- Education & Skilling: Improve quality; strengthen PMKVY, NEP 2020.
- Employment Generation: Boost MSMEs, manufacturing, ease of doing business.
- Women Empowerment: Gender equality in education & workforce participation.
- Balanced Regional Growth: Address north–south demographic divide.
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