Context:
The southwest monsoon has stalled over Maharashtra despite advancing rapidly across much of India. This has resulted in a significant rainfall deficit in parts of western India, raising concerns for agriculture, water availability, and reservoir storage.
Explanation:
- The Southwest Monsoon is India’s primary rainy season, providing nearly 75% of annual rainfall between June and September.
- It is driven by differential heating of land and sea, creating low pressure over the Indian subcontinent and drawing in moisture-laden winds from the oceans.
- The monsoon has two branches: the Arabian Sea Branch and the Bay of Bengal Branch.
- The Arabian Sea branch first strikes the Western Ghats, causing orographic rainfall on the windward side.
- Variations in monsoon rainfall are influenced by factors such as El Niño, La Niña, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), pressure systems, and monsoon depressions.
- The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an eastward-moving atmospheric disturbance that can enhance or suppress rainfall over the Indian Ocean region.
- Monsoon progress depends on the formation of low-pressure systems and depressions, particularly over the Bay of Bengal.
- The monsoon’s stagnation over Maharashtra is primarily a result of weak Arabian Sea winds, absence of monsoon surges, lack of low-pressure systems and an unfavourable The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase. However, this is a temporary atmospheric situation and does not by itself determine the rainfall outcome for the entire monsoon season.
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