Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: Global issues, Issue: Need for a new nuclear deal with Iran.
Context:
Recent US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan have revived global attention on the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium (HEU) stockpiles, the future of US-Israel-Iran relations, and the need to negotiate a successor to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).
Key Highlights:
- US Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities:
- Targeted nuclear sites: Targeted major Iranian nuclear sites, especially Fordow, which houses deep underground centrifuge and control rooms.
- Sophisticated bombers: Used GBU-57 bombs effective up to 60m underground though it is unclear whether strikes damaged Iran’s uranium or just external infrastructure.
Limitations of Military Options:
- Uncertainty: Iran may have pre-emptively moved stockpiles, as suspected by some analysts.
- Limited impact: Airstrikes are unlikely to permanently halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
- Counter offensive: As Israeli defences are over-stretched; Iran could target vulnerable Israeli and US assets.
- Proliferation Risks: Iran may resume Uranium enrichment secretly with the possibility of rebuilding a bomb-capable stockpile within months.
- Threat of regional escalation: If Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) is relocated and Israel finds and kills key Iranian nuclear scientists or generals, it may lead to wider conflict.
- Dirty Bomb Fears: If HEU is weaponized in “dirty bombs”, consequences could be catastrophic, especially in densely populated areas.
US Strategic Concerns:
- Avoiding Another ‘Forever War’: US is keen to avoid another prolonged conflict due to domestic political opposition. Its focus is tied on Ukraine and China,with strained military-industrial base.
Way Forward:
Need for JCPOA 2.0:
- A new nuclear agreement is needed with renewed terms for Iran’s nuclear transparency, surveillance mechanisms, and operational constraints on HEU usage.
Challenges for JCPOA 2.0:
- Difficult environment for diplomacy due to US political polarization,Iranian nationalism,regional distrust and Political non-feasibility
Conclusion:
The current status quo is unsustainable as airstrikes can’t solve the problem. Reviving diplomacy through a revised JCPOA is the most viable path to avoid further escalation. It needs strategic patience, international cooperation, and realistic negotiation.
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