Context:
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a “below-normal” southwest monsoon for 2026, the first such prediction in 11 years. The 2026 forecast predicts 92% of long period average (LPA), categorizing it as below-normal rainfall.
- IMD is India’s official weather forecasting and climate monitoring agency.
- The southwest monsoon (June–September) is the primary rainy season in India, contributing nearly 75% of annual rainfall.
- IMD uses the Long Period Average (LPA) (currently ~87 cm) as a benchmark to classify rainfall:
- Normal: 96–104% of LPA
- Below normal: <96% of LPA
- The key driver identified is the likely development of El Niño, a climatic phenomenon involving warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- El Niño conditions weaken the Indian monsoon by reducing moisture-laden winds and altering atmospheric circulation.
- Currently, weak La Niña-like conditions (cooling phase) are transitioning to neutral conditions, which may evolve into El Niño later.
- The impact of El Niño is expected to be stronger in the second half of the monsoon season.
- Monsoon performance is crucial for kharif crops (rice, pulses, oilseeds), as a large part of Indian agriculture remains rain-fed.
- Reduced rainfall may lead to lower agricultural output, rural distress, and food inflation.
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