Context
The UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2026 warns that limiting global warming to 1.5°C without significant overshoot is no longer achievable. Global greenhouse gas emissions declined marginally to 58.4 Gt CO₂e in 2025, although fossil fuel-related CO₂ emissions continued to increase.
Explanation
- The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) publishes the annual Emissions Gap Report, assessing the difference between projected greenhouse gas emissions and levels required to meet climate targets.
- The Paris Agreement (2015) aims to keep warming well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900).
- Global warming overshoot occurs when temperatures temporarily exceed a target before declining below it.
- Global emissions reached 58.4 Gt CO₂e in 2025, declining by 0.1 Gt from 2024.
- The decline resulted partly from reduced land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions, despite rising fossil fuel emissions.
- G20 members, excluding the African Union, accounted for approximately 76% of global emissions.
- Minimising overshoot requires emission reductions of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, relative to 2025, alongside carbon dioxide removal.
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