India-China, two of the world’s oldest civilizations and fastest-growing economies, share a 3,488 km disputed border and a relationship marked by both convergence and conflict. From the optimism of “Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai” to the confrontations of Doklam (2017) and Galwan (2020), ties have often swung between engagement and hostility. The recent SCO Summit 2025 in Tianjin, however, marked a cautious attempt to reset relations.
Convergences in Relations:
- Economic Interdependence: Bilateral trade reached $127.7 billion in FY 2024–25, with China as India’s 2nd largest trading partner.
- Multilateral Engagement: Cooperation in BRICS, SCO, and G20 on multipolarity, climate finance, and Global South advocacy.
- Cultural & People-to-People: Revival of Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, direct flights, tourist visas, and academic exchanges.
- Shared Global Vision: Commitment to multipolar Asia and Panchsheel principles (1954).
Recent Steps Towards Normalisation:
- Border Disengagement: 2024 Border Patrol Agreement restored structured patrolling in Depsang & Demchok.
- Trade Revival: Border trade resumed via Nathu La, Lipulekh, Shipki La.
- Hydro-Diplomacy: China resumed flood data sharing on Brahmaputra & Sutlej in 2025.
- Development Partnership: Leaders reaffirmed that India and China are “development partners, not rivals.”
- Multilateral Cooperation: India invited Xi for BRICS 2026 summit and both committed to strengthen SCO collaboration.
Persistent Divergences:
- Border Issues: Despite disengagement agreements in 2024, friction persists in Depsang and Demchok.
- Trade Imbalance: India’s deficit with China is $99.2 billion (2024–25), accounting for 35% of India’s total trade deficit.
- Strategic Rivalry:
- China–Pakistan nexus (CPEC through PoK).
- India’s QUAD participation seen as counter-China.
- Encirclement Concerns: China’s String of Pearls in IOR challenges India’s maritime security.
- Water Security: Chinese dams on the Brahmaputra raise downstream risks for India.
Way Forward:
- Border Management: Institutionalise joint verification, hotline alerts, and disengagement protocols.
- Balanced Economic Approach: Allow Chinese investments selectively in non-strategic sectors while diversifying supply chains.
- Water Diplomacy: Propose long-term water-sharing treaties beyond seasonal data.
- Pragmatic Trade Policy: Launch low-sensitivity trade packages to reduce deficit without compromising security.
- People-to-People Ties: Expand youth, academic, and cultural exchanges to counter threat perceptions.
- Strategic Autonomy: Engage China through Eurasian platforms while deepening Indo-Pacific partnerships (Quad, IPEF).
Conclusion:
India–China relations are defined by a dual reality of cooperation and competition. The 2025 SCO summit shows a pragmatic recognition that differences must not turn into disputes. A calibrated approach engaging where possible, deterring where necessary is vital for India to safeguard its national interests while contributing to Asian stability and global multipolarity.
‘+1’ Value addition:
- Bilateral trade FY 2024–25: $127.7 billion.
- Trade deficit: $99.2 billion (constitute 35% of India’s total deficit).
- Electronics imports from China: 97%.
- Renewable energy inputs: 80%.
- Military Expenditure (2024): China’s defence budget is at $230 bn whereas India’s defence budget is at $83 bn (SIPRI).
- Important Agreements / Mechanisms:
- 1954 Panchsheel Agreement – mutual respect & peaceful coexistence.
- 1993 Agreement on Peace and Tranquillity along LAC.
- 1996 Agreement on Confidence-Building Measures in Military Field along LAC.
- 2005 Protocol on Modalities for Implementing CBMs.
- 2013 Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (BDCA).
- 2024 Border Patrol Agreement: restored patrolling rights in Depsang & Demchok.
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