Paper: GS – I, Subject: Geography, Topic: Indian Climate & Vegetation, Issue: Indian Monsoon.
Context:
IMD Flags El Niño Risk for 2026 Indian Monsoon Season, Expects Around 92–93% Rainfall. India may experience a below-normal monsoon due to emerging El Niño conditions, raising concerns for agriculture, water resources and economic stability.
Key Takeaways:
UNDERSTANDING THE INDIAN MONSOON SYSTEM:
ANALYSIS OF CURRENT MONSOON OUTLOOK:
- IMD has forecast rainfall around 92–93% of LPA, placing it in the below-normal category.
- Past instances, such as 2015, show that actual rainfall may fall below initial forecasts.
- The second half of the monsoon, particularly August and September, is expected to be more affected.
- A possible positive IOD may moderate the impact, but uncertainties remain due to complex climate interactions.
Additional Risk Factors:
- Geopolitical tensions in West Asia may disrupt fertilizer supply chains.
- Rising input costs can worsen farmer sentiment during weak rainfall years.
- Combined climatic and economic stress can amplify rural vulnerability.
POLICY RESPONSE AND WAY FORWARD:
- Build adequate fertilizer reserves and ensure timely availability
- Improve water management and equitable distribution, especially in stressed regions
- Strengthen reservoir planning and groundwater recharge measures
- Provide timely advisories to farmers on cropping patterns and sowing practices
- Promote climate-resilient agriculture and drought-resistant crop varieties
CONCLUSION:
The Indian monsoon is governed by complex ocean–atmosphere interactions, where Long Period Average (LPA) provides a benchmark for rainfall assessment, while El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole determine its variability. A below-normal monsoon, particularly under El Niño conditions, can trigger a multi-sectoral crisis affecting agriculture, water security, and economic stability, necessitating early preparedness, adaptive governance, and climate resilience strategies.
Source: (The Hindu)
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