| Syllabus: GS-I, Subject: Society and Social Justice, Topic: Population and associated issues, Issue: Declining fertility rate |
Context: Lancet study and prediction on India’s total fertility rate (TFR).
Concepts:
- Total fertility rate (TFR) refers to the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her reproductive age.
- Replacement level fertility refers to the total fertility rate at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration, typically TFR of around 2.1.
Highlights:
- India’s total fertility rate (TFR) is dipping to 1.29 by 2050, far lower than the replacement rate.
- From around 2 children per woman in 1950, the TFR has dipped to approximately 1.91 in 2024.
- The global TFR has also been declining, by 2050, 155 out of 204 countries will be below the replacement level.
- Implications:
- Shrinking Workforce: A TFR below the replacement rate can lead to a shrinking working-age population in the long run.
- Dependency Ratio: As the elderly population grows relative to the working-age population, the dependency ratio increases.
- This means fewer working people are supporting more dependents, potentially impacting social services and healthcare systems.
