| Syllabus: GS-I, Subject: Society and Social Justice, Topic: Population and associated issues, Issue: Falling fertility rate in India |
Context: Several reports including Lancet and UN population division predicts a decline in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and overall population in India.
- Total Fertility Rate reflects the average number of children a woman might give birth to in her lifetime.
Factors driving demographic transition:
- Rapid economic development, lower infant mortality rates, increased women’s education and work participation,
- Improved housing conditions and old-age security systems.
Significance of demographic transition:
- Rapid decline in TFR leads to a fall in dependency rate and larger share of working adults, boosting economic growth.
- Demographic transition increases labour productivity through capital resources, education investment, and age distribution changes.
- Declining TFR affects education outcomes, shifting focus to middle and higher education and skill development.
- With less childcare responsibility, more women are expected to join the workforce, especially in southern states.
The way ahead:
- Improvement in life expectancy brings challenges of aging population and increased healthcare demand.
- India must prepare to seize opportunities ahead of predicted time.
| +1 advantage for mains (Reports):
·       UN Population Division projects India’s population to reach close to 1.7 billion by 2065 before declining. ·       The Lancet report estimates India’s total fertility rate (TFR) to decrease to 1.29 by 2051, indicating significant demographic changes. |
