Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: Global issues, Issue: Causes and complexities of global revolutions.
Context:
Recent protests in Nepal, 2025 highlight the complexity of revolutions.
Key Highlights:
Causal factors of revolution:
- Despite the existence of factors like poverty, corruption, injustice, governance failures, and digital mobilization, not every situation results in revolution.
- Revolutions are emergent phenomena, shaped by multiple overlapping factors and unpredictable triggers.
Nature of Revolutions:
Emergent Phenomena:
- Revolutions occur when multiple conditions align in a politically explosive form.
- They are rare despite widespread grievances.
Complex Causes:
- Poverty, corruption, injustice, poor governance, youth mobilization, and smartphones alone are insufficient. Many nations with such issues do not experience constant upheavals.
The Role of Triggers:
Cascade Institute framework: As per the Cascade institute’s framework, Crises occur due to interaction of two types of factors:
- Slow processes (stressors): such as poverty, inequality, corruption, unemployment.
- Fast processes (triggers): such as sudden price hikes, arbitrary government action, police brutality, digital censorship.
Probability of Uprisings:
- Revolutions become likely when discontent exceeds 20% of population and organized opposition channels unrest as seen in cases like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Indonesia.
Digital Age and Revolutions:
- Social Media Role: Platforms amplify anger, spread memes/hashtags, and push movements toward the brink. For instance, the recent case of Government’s ban on social media in Nepal.
- Transnational Tech Platforms: Operate beyond state control, promoting their commercial interests at the cost of national interest and social stability.
- Dual Nature: Provide voice to citizens, but also enable manipulation and misinformation.
Key Lessons from Global Experience:
Conclusion:
Revolutions are not automatic outcomes of grievances; they require alignment of conditions and sudden triggers. The ultimate safeguard against upheaval lies in good governance, inclusive growth, and responsive political systems.
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