West Asia has entered a phase of heightened instability due to the escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, which has expanded beyond the region into maritime zones such as the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. The West Asia Crisis has disrupted shipping routes, threatened the Strait of Hormuz, and triggered volatility in global energy markets.
Implications of the West Asia Crisis or conflict for India:
1. Energy security vulnerabilities:
- India imports over 85–88% of its crude oil, with nearly 50% sourced from West Asia.
- Around 2.5–2.7 million barrels per day of Indian crude imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making supply chains highly vulnerable.
2. Supply chain disruptions:
- The Red Sea–Suez route carries a large portion of India’s trade with Europe.
- Attacks on shipping vessels have increased insurance costs, freight charges, and delivery delays.
3. Macroeconomic pressures:
- Rising oil prices can increase inflation, fiscal deficit, and current account deficit (CAD).
- Every $10 rise in crude prices increases India’s import bill by roughly $15 billion annually.
4. Diaspora concerns:
- West Asia hosts nearly 9 million Indians, whose remittances exceed $40 billion annually.
- Escalation could require evacuation operations. For example, Operation Rahat evacuated thousands of Indians from Yemen.
5. Connectivity risks: Projects like Chabahar Port and the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) may face disruptions due to regional instability.
Ways for India to ensure strategic interests:
1. Diversification of energy sources:
- Increase imports from Russia, the US, Brazil, and Africa to reduce reliance on West Asia.
- Accelerate renewable energy expansion and green hydrogen initiatives.
2. Expansion of strategic petroleum reserves:
- Enhance storage capacity beyond the existing reserves capable of meeting about 6 – 8 weeks of demand.
- Encourage private and decentralized energy storage systems.
3. Strengthening maritime security:
- Expand naval missions such as Operation Sankalp to protect Indian shipping lanes.
- Enhance maritime domain awareness using satellites and drones.
4. Balanced engagement:
- Maintain strategic autonomy by engaging with Israel, Iran, Gulf states, and the US simultaneously.
- Promote dialogue and de-escalation through multilateral forums.
5. Alternative connectivity corridors:
- Operationalize the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
- Strengthen connectivity through Chabahar Port to bypass volatile maritime chokepoints.
6. Protecting diaspora interests:
- Develop evacuation contingency plans and strengthen diplomatic coordination with Gulf governments.
- Secure remittance channels and employment protection for Indian workers.
Conclusion:
A proactive approach aligns with India’s evolving “Look West” policy, which seeks deeper engagement with West Asia is needed to ensure regional stability and secure India’s strategic and economic priorities.
‘+1’ Value Addition:
- India imports 88% of its crude oil, with nearly 50% sourced from West Asia as per IEA data.
- The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of global oil trade, and about 2.5–2.7 million barrels/day of India’s imports pass through it.
- Nearly 9 million Indians live in West Asia, contributing significantly to India’s $120+ billion remittances.
- India currently maintains 5.3 million tonnes of crude oil reserves at Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru, and Padur.
- The International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) can reduce transport time by 40% and costs by 30%.
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