Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: Global Issues, Issue: Significance of Bagram airbase.
Context:
Reports of a possible U.S. return to Bagram highlight its significance for India, China, Pakistan, Russia, and Central Asia.
Key Highlights:
Significance of Bagram:
- Strategic location: Near Kabul, surrounded by mountains, with extensive runways.
- Crucial node: It served as the epicentre of operations for foreign powers such as Soviets, Americans, and NATO.
Current Geopolitical Context:
| U.S. Position | After withdrawal in 2021, the U.S. may seek limited reoccupation emphasising on:Shared intelligence operations.Counter-terrorism logistics.Monitoring China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).The U.S. objective is to deny adversaries full control of Afghanistan’s strategic geography and mineral wealth. |
| Taliban’s Role | Taliban paradox lies in militarily victorious, but politically insecure.It faces legitimacy challenges such as:Lack of international recognition.Dependence on external factors such as China, and Pakistan.Taliban is pragmatic in diplomacy, but distrustful of U.S. intentions. |
Regional Implications:
· China: As Bagram lies close to Xinjiang and critical BRI corridors, the U.S. presence could contain China’s economic influence and monitor Uyghur militancy.
· Iran: Opposes U.S. re-entry due to its rivalry with Washington and prefers an Afghanistan aligned with regional players rather than U.S. influence.
· Pakistan: Maintains ambivalent stance and more concerned about U.S.-India cooperation from Afghan soil.
· Central Asian States: Such as Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan are wary of Taliban influence. They may see U.S. presence as a balancing factor against instability and Chinese dominance.
India:
| Positive: | Negative: |
| U.S. presence could deter Pakistan-backed extremism.Provides strategic check on China in BRI corridors. | Risk of being caught in U.S.-China rivalry in Afghanistan.Taliban may grow more suspicious of Indian outreach. |
Conclusion:
India must continue engagement with Taliban for pragmatic relations and strengthen connectivity initiatives – Chabahar, INSTC, Air Freight Corridor. It must work with like-minded powers (U.S., EU, Central Asia) on counter-terrorism cooperation.
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