Paper: GS-I, Subject: Geography, Topic: Climatology – El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Issue: El Niño and Its Impact on Global Weather Patterns
Context
An unprecedented, powerful “Super El Niño” weather phenomenon is actively ongoing in 2026–2027. Indonesia is currently facing its most intense wildfire crisis in 11 years, severely exacerbated by this El Nino. Expected to persist into 2027, this El Nino demonstrates how changes in Pacific Ocean conditions influence weather worldwide.
Explanation
1. How El Niño Changes Global Weather
- During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warm surface water spreads eastwards, reducing cold-water upwelling near South America.
- This weakens and shifts the Walker circulation, moving rising moist air and rain clouds towards the central and eastern Pacific.
- South America: Warmer Pacific waters increase rainfall along parts of the western coast, particularly Peru and Ecuador, sometimes causing severe floods.
- Indonesia and Australia: Reduced rainfall over the western Pacific increases drought risks, particularly in Indonesia and eastern Australia.
- India: Changes in atmospheric circulation can weaken the southwest monsoon, increasing the risk of rainfall deficits and agricultural losses.
- These long-distance climatic connections, through which Pacific Ocean changes influence weather in distant regions, are called teleconnections.
2. Major Global Weather Impacts in 2026
Droughts and Rainfall Changes
- Indonesia: Prolonged dryness contributed to the country’s worst wildfire season since 2015, producing hazardous haze and respiratory illnesses.
- India: Monsoon rainfall was 13% below average, with prolonged dry spells and sudden downpours disrupting agriculture and water availability.
- Eastern and northeastern India experienced approximately 26% deficient rainfall, while southern India recorded a deficit of around 24%.
Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity
- Eastern Pacific: Warmer ocean waters and weaker wind shear favoured cyclone intensification, with 22 named storms and 12 hurricanes recorded.
- Vertical wind shear refers to changes in wind speed or direction with height, which can disrupt developing tropical cyclones.
- El Niño provided warm ocean waters and weak high-altitude winds that fueled the explosive rapid intensification of Hurricane Polo in September 2026, according to studies from NASA Science and World Weather Attribution.
- Atlantic Ocean: El Niño generally increases vertical wind shear, disturbing cyclone formation and contributing to a comparatively quiet hurricane season.
- Japan and Eastern China: Typhoons forming farther east may travel longer over warm waters, allowing greater intensification before bringing floods and landslides.
3. Limitations in Predicting El Niño’s Impacts
- El Niño changes the likelihood of weather events but does not independently determine rainfall patterns or cyclone intensity everywhere.
- Other influences, including the Indian Ocean Dipole, regional weather systems and global warming, also shape climatic conditions.
Conclusion
El Niño demonstrates how oceans and the atmosphere function as an interconnected climatic system. Understanding its contrasting regional impacts is essential for agricultural planning, disaster preparedness and effective early-warning systems.
Source: (BBC)
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