Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: Global Issues, Issue: Global Power Dynamics in 2025.
Context:
The world is trending towards multipolarity with the rise of China and Russia alongside the United States, it also exhibits Bipolar Traits due to the strategic competition between the U.S. and China, with Russia acting as a “swing” power.
Key Highlights:
The End of Unipolarity and the Rise of Great Powers:
- The Unipolar Moment’s Demise: The disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 ushered in a period of American unipolarity. However, events like Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 signaled the limits of the U.S.-led “rules-based order” and the resurgence of great power competition.
- The Emergence of Three Great Powers: The U.S. remains the leading power, but China and Russia increasingly shape global outcomes, reflecting an anarchic international system where states pursue self-interest and security.
- China as the Principal Challenger: The U.S. sees China as its primary systemic challenger, as China’s rapidly growing economy is nearing U.S. size and is being translated into expanding military capabilities.
- Russia’s Role as a Great Power: Despite a weaker economy, Russia remains a great power due to its nuclear arsenal, vast geography, resources, and readiness to use force, seeking to revise Europe’s security order while aligning closer with China.
- The U.S.-China Contest: The U.S. and China are engaged in a prolonged contest for regional hegemony and global dominance. This competition is reminiscent of the rivalry between Britain and Germany in 19th century Europe.
Role of Middle Powers:
- Countries like India, Japan, Germany, Brazil pursues strategic autonomy.
- They navigate between major powers to protect national interests.
- Their choices add to the system’s fluidity and uncertainty.
The global order is neither fully multipolar nor purely bipolar. It is a fluid multipolar system with bipolar characteristics, driven mainly by US – China rivalry, with Russia as a swing power and middle powers hedging for strategic autonomy.
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