Paper: GS-I & GS-III | Subject: Geography | Topic: Indian Monsoon and Climatic Phenomena | Issue: Northeast Monsoon Variability, El Niño and Disaster Preparedness
Context
Following a deficient southwest monsoon, southern India is increasingly dependent on the northeast monsoon for agricultural and water security. Although the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast normal seasonal rainfall, uncertainties in its distribution have raised concerns about floods and droughts.
Explanation
Why Is the Northeast Monsoon Unpredictable?
- India received 759.4 mm against 868.6 mm during the southwest monsoon, recording a 12.6% deficit that affected kharif cultivation and food prices.
- Consequently, adequate northeast monsoon rainfall becomes essential for replenishing reservoirs, restoring soil moisture and supporting subsequent agricultural activities.
- Although IMD forecast normal seasonal rainfall, this does not guarantee uniform rainfall across different regions and periods.
- The northeast monsoon’s normal rainfall range allows deviations of approximately 12% from LPA, compared with around 5% for the southwest monsoon.
- El Niño often weakens the southwest monsoon, but its influence on northeast monsoon rainfall remains inconsistent.
- For instance, El Niño years such as 1997 and 2009 experienced above-normal northeast rainfall, while 1982 and 2002 witnessed deficits.
- This uncertainty arises partly because changes in atmospheric circulation can redirect rain-bearing cyclonic systems towards different coastal regions.
Consequences of Unpredictable Rainfall
- Even normal seasonal rainfall can conceal prolonged dry spells and exceptionally heavy rainfall concentrated within a few days.
- The 2015 Chennai floods demonstrated how extreme rainfall can overwhelm urban drainage systems, damage infrastructure and displace communities.
- Conversely, prolonged rainfall deficits can reduce reservoir storage, threaten irrigation supplies and affect subsequent rabi cultivation.
Way Forward
- Southern states must strengthen localised weather forecasting, early-warning systems, cyclone shelters and emergency response mechanisms.
- Clearing stormwater drains, restoring wetlands and improving urban planning can reduce flooding caused by intense rainfall.
- Better reservoir management, water conservation and climate-resilient agriculture can help communities prepare for prolonged rainfall deficits.
Conclusion
The northeast monsoon is crucial for southern India’s agriculture and water security, but its rainfall remains highly unpredictable. Preparedness must address both floods and droughts, recognising that normal seasonal rainfall does not necessarily mean safe or evenly distributed rainfall.
Source: (The Hindu)
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