Answer:
The China–Pakistan–Bangladesh trilateral held on 19 June 2025 in Kunming signals an emerging axis in South Asia. It reflects China’s broader strategic intent to reshape South Asia’s geopolitical landscape and limit India’s regional influence.
The trilateral Diplomacy-Objectives:
Counterbalancing India: China aims to construct alternative multilateral frameworks that sideline India—especially as India grows closer to Bangladesh and Afghanistan.
Expanding CPEC Influence: The Kunming summit revives efforts to extend CPEC eastward toward Bangladesh and the Bay of Bengal, integrating South Asia into China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) architecture.
Security Penetration: Trilateral dialogues enable China to assert itself as a security stakeholder, particularly by promoting connectivity projects with strategic implications (e.g., port access, overland corridors).
Reviving Historical Alignment:
Post-1962 Sino-Indian War, China allied with Pakistan to check Indian power.
In 2024, 60% of Pakistan’s arms were sourced from China, with $29+ billion in Chinese investments across Gwadar, infrastructure, and power sectors.
The Kunming summit revives this alignment by incorporating Bangladesh, reminiscent of East Pakistan’s role during Cold War geopolitics.
Implications for India:
Strategic Encirclement (String of Pearls): The inclusion of Bangladesh offers China a maritime gateway to the Bay of Bengal, potentially encircling India from the west (Gwadar) and east (Chittagong).
Maritime and Border Security Risks: Pakistani naval ships reportedly docked at Chittagong Port, raising alarm over military logistics and surveillance risks near India’s eastern coastline.
Terrorism and Proxy Dynamics: A broader alliance could create space for Pakistan-backed non-state actors, posing challenges to India’s internal security, especially in J&K and Northeast India.
Growing distance with Bangladesh:
Shift Post-2024 Regime Change: The ouster of Sheikh Hasina, allegedly aided by Pakistan’s ISI, has brought a government more open to China-Pakistan overtures, distancing from India.
Domestic Constraints: Amid post-uprising instability and elections in 2026, Dhaka’s interim government is unlikely to take bold foreign policy decisions, which limits deep alignment with either bloc.
Limitations of the trilateral:
Internal Instability Among Allies: Pakistan and Afghanistan face economic crises, insurgencies, and weak governance, making trilateral execution difficult.
Declining Economic Leverage: China’s growth slowdown, debt diplomacy backlash, and BRI fatigue reduce its ability to sustain long-term influence in volatile regions.
India’s Soft Power Advantage: India’s cultural, educational, and development footprint in South Asia remains strong, often viewed more positively than China’s transactional approach.
India’s response to the trilateral:
Economic and Strategic Leverage: India maintains significant leverage over Bangladesh through trade, electricity exports, and border security cooperation, especially in curbing Northeast insurgencies.
Regional Balancing Moves:
Blocking CPEC passage through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
Strengthening ties with Afghanistan, Bhutan, Nepal, and Myanmar.
Reviving BIMSTEC and BBIN as regional alternatives to BRI.
Military Preparedness: Heightened deployments post Galwan (2020) and Doklam (2017) have been reinforced with infrastructure buildup across borders.
Way Forward:
Avoid Overreaction: India should resist viewing every trilateral as a zero-sum threat and instead focus on sustained engagement.
Pragmatic Diplomacy: Promote infrastructure partnerships (e.g., Northeast–Bangladesh rail and energy grids) and offer multilateral regional platforms to dilute Chinese influence.
Reaffirm Role as Net Security Provider: Position India as a provider of stability, humanitarian support, and development financing, particularly in the Indian Ocean Region.
Conclusion:
The Kunming trilateral reflects China’s broader strategy to shape South Asia’s balance of power. Yet, internal contradictions, China’s own limitations, and India’s enduring regional linkages offer room for calibrated diplomacy and strategic depth. India needs patience, influence-building, and regional integration to counter it.
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