In a perilous world, India must read the tea leaves well

Paper: GS – II, Subject: International Relations, Topic: India’s foreign policy, Issue: India’s foreign policy in a changing world.

Context:

The recent India-Pakistan tensions, China-Pakistan nexus, Israel-Iran conflict, and India’s strategic postures emphasize that India’s traditional strategy of neutrality may no longer be tenable in a world shaped by sharp polarities and regional conflicts.

Key Highlights:

Key Challenges for India’s Foreign Policy:

India-Pakistan Conflict:

• Vulnerabilities: Recent border conflicts and military escalations have exposed India’s vulnerabilities.
• Nexus: The China-Pakistan nexus (military and technology transfer) is strengthening. Pakistan’s new military leadership under Gen. Asim Munir has taken a harder stance.
• Reassessing response: India must reassess its strategic response, especially after U.S. tilt towards Pakistan post-G7 (due to Trump’s overtures).

Israel-Iran Conflict and India’s Dilemma:

• Economic insecurity: India may face a future where a direct Israel-Iran war affects oil flows, regional diplomacy, and trade.
• Balancing ties: India’s attempt to balance ties between Israel and Iran is becoming harder.
• Use of ammunition: The use of GBU-57 bunker buster bombs by Israel reflects the rising stakes.
• India’s stance: India’s ‘Neutrality’ may now signal indifference or lack of assertiveness while Israel expects unambiguous support, not hedged statements.

U.S. Policy Shift and Global Alignment:

• Softening stance towards Pakistan: Trump’s outreach to Pakistan and visible drift of U.S. away from India on some global forums raise questions.
• Outlier risk: India risks being perceived as an ‘outlier’ in many conflicts. The India-West relationship requires better narrative management and assertive diplomatic moves.

Challenge to the Idea of Strategic Neutrality:

India has traditionally followed a non-aligned or neutral posture, especially in West Asia. With escalating conflicts and clear sides forming, strategic ambiguity could be seen as weakness. India’s silence or lack of strong response in international forums is increasingly out of sync with evolving realities.

Measures needed:

• Reassess Non-alignment: Time for India to redefine the idea of ‘strategic autonomy’ and move away from non-alignment as mere neutrality.
• Policy flexibility: India needs a shift towards a flexible alignment strategy based on national interest.
• Engagement in Global Platforms: The Shangri-La Dialogue is cited as an example where India needs to use diplomacy more effectively. Countries like Singapore have successfully moved beyond neutrality to shape regional narratives.
• Strategic Clarity: India must focus on countering Chinese strategic messaging, addressing perceptions of silence in volatile regions and actively define India’s role in the Indo-Pacific and West Asia.
• Countering China: China has effectively shaped global perception by engaging in multilateral diplomacy. For example, China’s white paper on its global diplomacy subtly targets India’s regional positions.

India must counter this by:

• Reasserting leadership in Global South.
• Using platforms like Quad more assertively.
• Enhancing strategic communication.

Conclusion:

India can no longer afford fence-sitting in global geopolitics. In a multipolar but polarised world, India needs to read the ‘geopolitical tea leaves’ and act with strategic foresight and moral clarity.

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/in-a-perilous-world-india-must-read-the-tea-leaves-well/article69756492.ece

La Excellence IAS Academy, the best IAS coaching in Hyderabad, known for delivering quality content and conceptual clarity for UPSC 2025 preparation.

FOLLOW US ON:

◉ YouTube : https://www.youtube.com/@CivilsPrepTeam

◉ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LaExcellenceIAS

◉ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/laexcellenceiasacademy/

GET IN TOUCH:

Contact us at info@laex.in, https://laex.in/contact-us/

or Call us @ +91 9052 29 2929, +91 9052 99 2929, +91 9154 24 2140

OUR BRANCHES:
Head Office: H No: 1-10-225A, Beside AEVA Fertility Center, Ashok Nagar Extension, VV Giri Nagar, Ashok Nagar, Hyderabad, 500020

Madhapur: Flat no: 301, survey no 58-60, Guttala begumpet Madhapur metro pillar: 1524,  Rangareddy Hyderabad, Telangana 500081

Bangalore: Plot No: 99, 2nd floor, 80 Feet Road, Beside Poorvika Mobiles, Chandra Layout, Attiguppe, Near Vijaya Nagara, Bengaluru, 560040