Paper: GS-III, Subject: Environment and Ecology, Topic: Global Warming and Climate Change, Issue: Global warming becoming a distraction
Context:
The Paris Agreement sets a global mean temperature rise limit of 2°C by 2100, with a more ambitious target of 1.5°C advocated by vulnerable nations.
- Climate models used for projections are not perfect, leading to uncertainties in estimating future temperature rises.
- Predictions for the distant future depend on speculative scenarios regarding greenhouse gas emissions, energy sources, and population growth, making them inherently unreliable.
Is Mean Global Warming Important?
- Recent record warm years (2023 and 2024) have raised concerns about crossing the 1.5°C threshold.
- The 2°C threshold is based on historical economic assumptions and may not accurately reflect climate realities.
- The focus on specific temperature thresholds (1.5°C vs. 2°C) may detract from the immediate actions needed to manage climate disasters.
Did the World Really Cross 1.5°C:
- Different climate models yield varying estimates of global temperature, leading to confusion about whether the 1.5°C threshold has been crossed.
- The rate of warming can fluctuate, as seen in the drop-in warming rates from 2023-2025.
- The relevance of global mean warming levels is questioned in light of the uncertainties involved.
The Need for Immediate Action on Climate Change
While understanding global mean temperature trends is important, the focus should shift towards enhancing disaster preparedness, management, and recovery efforts. By addressing the urgent needs of communities facing climate-related challenges, we can better navigate the uncertainties of our changing climate.
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