A tectonic shift in thinking to build seismic resilience

Paper: GS – III, Subject: Environment, Ecology and Disaster Management, Topic: Disaster Management, Issue: Strengthening disaster resilience in India.

Context:

A magnitude 4.4 earthquake in Delhi has reignited concerns about India’s seismic vulnerability. Although the quake caused minimal damage, it highlighted the fragility of Delhi’s infrastructure, especially buildings predating 2000.

Key Highlights:

Recent Earthquakes: Series of quakes in 2025:

  • Mandalay (7.7 magnitude).
  • Greece (6.2 magnitude).
  • Sikkim, Myanmar, Greece, Ecuador – highlight global tectonic shifts.
  • Lessons from Bangkok: Improved seismic codes mitigated damage from 2025 quake.

Seismic Vulnerability in India:

  • High seismic zone: India lies on a highly tectonically active zone, demanding urgent seismic resilience measures.
  • India’s tectonic setting: Collision of Indian Plate with Eurasian Plate causes seismic activity.
  • Himalayan region: Northern India, especially the Himalayan region, is prone to high-magnitude earthquakes (8+). Over 300 million people in India, Nepal, and Bhutan are at risk.

Seismic Zones in India:

  • Seismic Zones II to V, with Zone V being the most severe which includes Northeast India: Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland (PGA > 0.36g).
  • Ripple effects from regional quakes felt here such as Mandalay quake in May 2025.
  • Andaman & Nicobar Islands: vulnerable to tsunamis.
  • Sikkim & Himalayan belt: consistent low-level tremors.

The Danger of Unpreparedness:

  • High risk: Delhi in Seismic Zone IV with a Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) of 0.24g.
  • High population density: 33.5 million people; 5,000+ high-rises.
  • Violation of seismic code: Most old buildings do not adhere to BIS 1893:2016 seismic code. Past events also show devastating impacts (e.g., Bhuj 2001, Nepal 2015).
  • Urbanisation risk: Urbanisation increases risks, especially in areas like East Delhi where there are Liquefaction-prone soils and poorly designed buildings.
  • Limited awareness: NCS’s (National Centre for Seismology) ‘IndiaQuake’ app provides real-time warnings, but public awareness and enforcement are weak.

Steps for Seismic Resilience:

  • Retrofitting old buildings with steel jacketing.
  • Mandate deep pile foundations in vulnerable zones.
  • Avoid high-risk construction zones such as floodplains like Brahmaputra.
  • Expand early warning systems such as NCS to rural areas.
  • Increase compliance checks.
  • Strengthen Seismic code enforcement, public education and Disaster response systems.
  • Encourage Emergency preparedness such as kits, evacuation drills, etc.
  • Promote risk-aware urban development.
Global Case studies:Bangkok: High-strength concrete + ductile detailing reduced quake damage.Myanmar: Lax code enforcement worsened toll.Lessons for India:Focus on ductile design, soil-specific planning in regions like Northeast & Kutch.Estimated ₹50,000 crore needed for retrofitting nationwide.

Conclusion:

India needs a paradigm shift in earthquake resilience from reactive measures to preventive structural and policy reforms. Use lessons from recent events to pre-empt the “next big one.”

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/a-tectonic-shift-in-thinking-to-build-seismic-resilience/article69820061.ece

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